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Alexander Kovalenko, a military and political analyst of the 'Information Resistance' group beleives that the Russian forces is preparing for urban combat and battles in industrial areas of Avdiivka. He shared this opinion in his Telegram.
"The command of the Russian forces has initiated the relocation of the 239th Tank Battalion from the 90th Tank Division as part of the "Center" troops group, whose area of responsibility includes the Luhansk region, as you may recall. The 239th Tank Battalion was originally stationed in the Kremenna area and operated along the Lyman direction.
It's worth noting that this battalion is not fully equipped with vehicles and equipment, according to the established standards. It comprises 32 tanks and 20 armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). This means it falls short even compared to the typical Russian military composition, which adheres to a 1 tank to 1 AFV ratio.
Nevertheless, this does not imply that this battalion will not carry out its primary function – advancing in orderly, ceremonial columns, with dynamic protection, to break through our lines in an attempt to reinforce surviving paratroopers in new positions. It will.
Regrettably, this relocation only confirms our worst fears. The Russian command will not cease its efforts to encircle Avdiivka. They have driven the 2nd Airborne Division (2-ya OVA) toward Avdiivka, are pushing units from the 41st Airborne Division (41-ya OVA), and the 55th Separate Mechanized Brigade (55-ya OMSBr) is active in the vicinity of Opytne. They are now starting to drive units from the 90th Tank Division.
The concentration of Russian forces and resources around Avdiivka is huge.
I'm also interested in the request from the command of the Russian forces for the delivery of ammunition to Avdiivka. The artillery component includes only 600 rounds of 152mm ammunition, while there are more than 3,500 rounds of 122mm ammunition. It's worth noting that considering the intensity of the combat operations in Avdiivka, this is a very insignificant request, which makes one wonder: where are the 100,500 million North Korean shells?
Perhaps, this is because the Russian command has requested several tens of thousands of 82mm mines.
It's clear that the Russian forces is preparing for urban combat and battles in industrial areas. Their primary objective right now is not even to advance towards Stepove but to break through the advanced assault groups to reach Avdiivka Coke Plant (owned by Metinvest - red.) for subsequent consolidation.
However, even with the hyperinflated resources they have in Avdiivka, it's unlikely that they will be able to accomplish their objectives before the New Year. This means that the 41st Airborne Division (41-ya OVA) and the 90th Tank Division (90-ya TD) may practically be fully deployed in Avdiivka. Although, if that happens, it raises the question of who will hold the R-66 line?
For the Russian forces, Avdiivka is becoming a black hole unlike any they have experienced before, but one that they truly deserve."
