By Alexander Kovalenko for Oboz
More than two weeks have passed since the massive missile strike on Ukrainian territory on November 28. This time was enough for the Russian Forces to prepare another act of terror, as previously warned. As expected, this occurred – on the night of December 13, Russia carried out another act of terror.
Two weeks were more than enough for reconnaissance activities, to study, refine, and coordinate new routes, prepare and load munitions, etc. In other words, the timing of the next missile strike was expected to occur around the middle of December.
The Russian forces did not change their predicted timing and carried out an act of terror against the civilian population by striking the energy infrastructure precisely during this period. I mentioned in several interviews that the Russian forces could carry out 2-3 strikes in December. Well, the first has already occurred, but there are still certain nuances that deviate from the general pattern of typical preparation. These two very important factors are the fetishistic date of the New Year holidays and the fetishistic "Oreshnik" missile.
Let us try to examine everything in more detail. But first, let's consider a few important points, namely: what accumulated potential the Russian forces had since November 28, and what the impact of the strike on December 13 was – with all the resulting consequences.
Russian Forces Potential
Since November 28, the Russians had the opportunity to accumulate a certain amount of their strike potential. Given the steady pace of missile production, the Russian Forces accumulated the following components:
- X-101/555 – 30 missiles
- 3M-14 – 15 missiles
- 9M723 Iskander OTMS – up to 15 missiles, including the use of 2 missiles during the specified period
- 9M728 Iskander-K OTMS – about 15 missiles, including the use of 2 missiles during the specified period
- X-47M2 Kinzhal – 4 missiles
Let me remind you that at the beginning of November, just before the series of massive missile strikes, the Russian Forces had:
- X-101/555 – about 320 units
- 3M-14 Kalibr – about 410 units
- 9M723 Iskander-M OTMS – more than 100 units
- 9M728 Iskander-K OTMS – about 230 units
- X-47M2 Kinzhal – about 65 units
These numbers indicated that the Russian forces had all the resources to carry out a mass missile strike, primarily using X-101/555 and 3M-14 Kalibr. However, given the resources expended in November, these could have been either two mass strikes in which the X-101/555 and 3M-14 Kalibr missiles would play the predominant role, with up to 100 units used, or several strikes with a limited ammunition load.
It was expected, as in previous instances, that all strikes would be combined and heavily supplemented with drones – both strike and decoy drones. This is exactly what we saw on the night of December 13, when a massive drone raid preceded the missile strike.
The December 13 Attack
On the night of December 13, Ukraine was hit by 94 missiles (83 intercepted) of various types and 193 drones (both strike and decoy).
As expected, the primary target was the energy system, though attempts were also made to strike logistics networks, particularly transport hubs. Regionally, the main wave of missile strikes targeted the western regions of Ukraine. The flight trajectories of the X-101/555 missiles were designed to bypass the Kyiv region, where the likelihood of interception is much higher.
The Russians used X-101/555, 3M-14 Kalibr, 9M723 Iskander-M OTMS, X-47M2 Kinzhal, X-22, and X-59/69 missiles.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force report, the enemy used:
- X-101/555 – 55 missiles
- 3M-14 Kalibr – 24 missiles
- X-47M2 Kinzhal – 4 missiles
- 9M723 Iskander-M OTMS – 2 missiles (one intercepted)
- KN-23 – 1 missile
- 9M728 Iskander-K OTMS – 7 missiles
- X-59/69 – 1 missile
- Drones – 193 (80 intercepted, 105 location lost (jammed), 5 redirected to Russia, one to Belarus)
For the X-101/X-555/Kalibr/Iskander-K missiles, 80 targets were destroyed, and identification of the types is ongoing.
Thus, the Russian Forces carried out another mass combined strike aimed at terrorizing the population of Ukraine, which was largely suppressed and prevented. Unfortunately, the regions and areas of Ukraine that are not protected by modern air defense systems capable of countering ballistic and air-borne ballistic threats were vulnerable to the attacks. For other regions, the counteraction to threats was quite high.
This attack did not have a catastrophic impact on Ukraine's energy sector, though it was the largest in terms of the number of drones used. This was expected, as the Russian Forces had not actively used drones since the beginning of December, clearly saving them up, which ultimately resulted in 193 units being deployed. Previously, on November 26, the Russian Forces used 183 drones, setting a record at that time. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Armed Forces successfully handled this challenge.
However, the pressing question now is: when might the next strikes occur?
New Year Holidays
It is well known that the Russian Forces has a fetish for launching strikes during holidays. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, almost every New Year in Ukraine has been accompanied by heavy shelling (before, during, and after "the hour X"). Christmas (especially now, when it is celebrated in Ukraine in contrast to the ideology imposed by the Russian Orthodox Church), New Year's Eve, and the days following them are the most dangerous and extreme period.
Given that the Russians struck Ukraine on December 13, the actual combat readiness of the Russian Forces for the next strike could well fall within the period of December 23-26.
Of course, ahead of mass missile strikes, the Russian Forces may carry out additional reconnaissance through drone raids and limited strikes, but in general, the most intense days will be the holiday period.
Although it cannot be said that these strikes will be much more massive than those we saw in November. The Russians do not have the resources for that — unless, of course, they wish to stretch it over several days (and strikes). They might, however, supplement it with drones.
The activity of their drone component since the beginning of December has been rather mediocre — until the 13th, there had been around 500 raids with no more than 10 hits on specific targets (roughly speaking, their effectiveness is still at about 2%, the lowest rate throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine).
But such low numbers in the use of drones by the enemy meant only one thing: they were accumulating them for more mass strikes, which occurred in the night of December 13 (more than a quarter of all the drones used since the beginning of the month).
"Oreshnik"
As is known, Putin has entered a period very similar to the final stage of Adolf Hitler, namely, the invention of some "superweapon" to threaten the whole world. In the case of the Russian dictator, this "superweapon" is the "Oreshnik."
Since its use, despite the still lack of official expert results, several assumptions have been made about what kind of missile this actually was. Among them are the versions that it could be the RS-26 "Rubezh" or even the RS-10 "Pioneer." In both cases, the missiles lack conventional warheads and therefore can only be used as dummies filled, for example, with concrete in conventional warfare.
On the night of November 21, such a missile was used to strike Dnipro, which generated an unhealthy wave in the information space, mainly with panic-driven reactions. Although the result of the strike, despite the dramatic video, was quite mediocre destruction. This is not surprising, since the average strike potential of these dummies is comparable to the OFAB-250, and in this comparison, the 9M723 Iskander missile poses many times greater a threat than this parody of a "superweapon."
Nevertheless, Russian propaganda platforms continue their campaign of frightening Ukrainians and residents of European countries with the "superweapon" of the naked king. Therefore, it is entirely possible that Russia may repeat the use of this missile before the end of the year. However, given its relatively mediocre effect, it may very well be combined with mass strikes during the holiday period. The destruction caused by regular weaponry will be attributed by Russian propaganda to the effect of the "world's unparalleled Oreshnik."
Conclusions
As of now, Russia has entered the stage of preparing for the next massive missile strike on Ukraine. This strike will likely differ little from previous ones — it will be of a combined nature, consisting of different types of missiles, synchronized to enter Ukrainian airspace at the same time, mixed with a large number of drones.
Considering that the enemy has used drones in a relatively restrained manner in the first two weeks of December, it can be inferred that they have been accumulating this component for subsequent, more mass-scale use in multiple phases — similar to what we saw on December 13.
Regarding the timing, we can expect the strike to occur during the Christmas holidays and even after them — the enemy may well attempt to cut off the power to Ukrainians on New Year’s Eve and light up the night sky with the "Oreshnik."
This sick, maniacal dictator is likely preparing precisely for this, and it would be unrealistic to expect anything else from him.
