Belarus has no military sovereignty and is fully dependent on Russia. This applies both to the presence of Russian military personnel on Belarusian territory and to the involvement of the Belarusian defense-industrial complex in supporting Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine.
Major General Illia Pavlenko, former Deputy Head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, stated this at the 4th Ostrozky Forum.
“We can confidently say — and this is our position — that Belarus indeed has no sovereignty in the military sphere, because this is the result of a long-term process of building a unified state with Russia. Open sources show how joint training with Russian equipment takes place, and that there are no restrictions for Russian military personnel on the territory of Belarus. They do whatever they need — not only during exercises but whenever they want. The regime of Lukashenko tries to conceal this. We identified cases of Russian military personnel in civilian clothes moving around Belarus to study road conditions, soil freezing, and availability of agricultural machinery. Why? To be able to plan rapid troop transfers — not only the 30,000 troops that could be moved by rail along the Vitebsk–Brest line, but also by other routes,” Pavlenko said.
He added that the erosion of Belarusian sovereignty is evidenced by Russian–Belarusian agreements, changes to the military doctrine, the creation of a joint military group, and cooperation in the defence sector.
“All this clearly shows that Belarus has essentially lost its military sovereignty,” Pavlenko emphasized, adding that the same applies to the work of Belarusian intelligence services.
According to him, Ukraine and many European partners no longer view Belarus as an independent country, but as a joint military–political space with Russia.
He also noted that Belarusian intelligence services currently carry out tasks in the interests of Russia.
Valery Kabanchuk, representative for security and defence of the Belarusian United Transitional Cabinet, confirmed that Belarusian enterprises are fulfilling Russian defence orders.
“Unfortunately, over 500 Belarusian enterprises are currently working under Russia’s state defence contract. They also help bypass sanctions for Belarusian and Russian companies. Belarus has effectively become an ‘assembly shop,’ producing armor. What does Belarus make now? 122 mm MLRS rockets, 152 mm artillery shells, microchips used in Kalibr missiles, and ammunition,” Kabanchuk said.
He noted that Belarus participates in manufacturing control units for the “Satan” intercontinental ballistic missiles. It also modernizes outdated equipment for Russian forces and produces UAVs.
“All enterprises — state and private — work for the Russian military-industrial complex,” he stressed, adding that this policy is a personal decision of Lukashenko.
He noted that the issue extends beyond the militarization of the Belarusian economy to the militarization of the entire society, including children, who are widely involved in military-patriotic training camps. Changes are being introduced to administrative, labor, criminal legislation and the Constitution, incorporating norms related to martial law.
Kabanchuk added that Belarus is building military-purpose infrastructure.
“This infrastructure is not needed by a country that is not preparing for war. Unfortunately, I cannot give more details, but everything is being built in Belarus — and everyone understands why,” he said.
Kabanchuk noted that Belarusian defense enterprises will reach maximum capacity by mid‑2027. They can be used both for the war in Ukraine and against NATO countries
