A column by military analyst David Axe examines one of the most important lessons of the Russian‑Ukrainian war—the critical importance of intelligence and surveillance (monitoring).
Here is a summary of the key points:
Ukrainian deep‑strike operations are an indicator of a new level of warfare. For example, in December, the SІU’s Special Operations Center “A” carried out a series of long‑range strikes against the Belbek air base in Crimea (240 km from the front line). MiG‑31 and Su‑27 aircraft were hit, with at least two planes in full combat readiness and their crews in place. The repeated nature of these Ukrainian strikes points to systematic work rather than a one‑off operation.
Ukraine had intelligence on the exact moment the aircraft were ready to take off. This underscores the decisive role of rapidly closing the intelligence cycle when striking high‑value targets.
The same intelligence‑driven logic of precise strikes is critically important for the United States and its allies in a Taiwan defense scenario. The success or failure of deterring China directly depends on the quality of targeting.
The United States, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan are rapidly expanding their missile arsenals and strike UAVs. The goal is to destroy Chinese amphibious forces, aviation, naval assets, logistics, and command centers in order to disrupt or slow an invasion of the island.
Kyiv uses human intelligence in Crimea, its own space capabilities, and commercial satellites. One example is the purchase of a satellite from the Finnish company Iceye exclusively for Ukraine’s needs. Kyiv also receives large‑scale intelligence support from partners—airborne, space‑based, and ground‑based.
The West’s intelligence architecture in the Pacific is far more powerful than Ukraine’s capabilities. The region employs over‑the‑horizon radars, P‑8 Poseidon aircraft, Triton UAVs, RQ‑180 platforms, and hundreds of satellites. Under ideal conditions, this should enable early detection and engagement of Chinese forces.
However, China is systematically preparing to neutralize these intelligence capabilities. Therefore, allies must urgently develop all levels of intelligence and its protection. Everything else is secondary. Only this will make it possible to strike Chinese forces as effectively as Ukraine is currently striking Russian aircraft while they are still on the ground at airfields.
