Russian sources expressed pronounced concern about ongoing Ukrainian activity on the east bank of Kherson region and framed these activities as part of a potential larger Ukrainian operation.
The majority of Russian claims about developments on the east bank are largely single-sourced to one prominent Russian milblogger who has recently heavily focused his reporting on this section of the front.Russian sources characterized the reported assaults as a Ukrainian effort to expand a “bridgehead” on the east bank and the initial stages of a larger offensive operation across the Dnieper River.
Russian President Vladimir Putin similarly described Ukrainian activity in Kherson region as the “next counteroffensive” and continued his typical rhetorical line by painting all Ukrainian offensive operations as a failure.
The prominent Russian milblogger who is the basis for many of these claims has expressed concern about a Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro River on and off throughout 2023 and escalated his warnings in late September 2023. The milblogger reacted to the reported assault on the night of October 17 to 18 by accusing the Russian MoD of not taking the threat of a Ukrainian crossing seriously.
Russian concerns about the ability of Russian forces to repel a potential Ukrainian offensive operation across the Dnieper River may be partially connected to the condition of the Russian grouping of forces on the left bank. The Russian command has drawn relatively more elite units from the Kherson direction to support defensive operations in western Zaporizhia region in recent months due to likely viewing Kherson as a quiet sector, and the current force composition in the area is likely relatively less combat effective.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated on October 17 that Russian forces were still redeploying trained units from the Kherson direction to the Zaporizhia and eastern directions.
The Russian military may have recently redeployed elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (Central Military District) and the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) to the Kherson direction, however, but it is unclear where in Kherson region elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army are currently deployed.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations reportedly previously rendered the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade combat ineffective as of September 22.
