Trouble is like wet wipes in a pack. You pull one out — and get them all. The nighttime exchange of strikes between India and Pakistan is hard to call unexpected. It’s logical. The temptation to achieve goals not gradually, through diplomacy, but with military force — it’s very strong. And it always has been.
It’s just that until a certain point, the leaders of some countries had to restrain their aggressive urges. Not out of respect for rules and laws. Just because they feared a swift and united response from the global community. But that very global community has deflated. And not just yesterday — long before. Now the law of force is in effect. Everything is allowed.
Frankly, you could say the Pandora’s box was opened without consequence by Russia back in 2008. The attack on Georgia left the pillars of world order — the EU and the US — with two options. A choice between two scenarios. They could have reacted sharply right away. Maybe even unreasonably sharply. Land NATO troops. Cut Russia off physically from the global economy. Immediately.
The next day, shut the borders completely, deport tourists, physically block the export of oil and gas. Close ports to all ships, halt all air traffic. No deep concern expressed in words, no “profitable business exit from Russia” attempts. The chipmunk nation should be left in total isolation, living off scraps. Only then express bewilderment and wait for a delegation to arrive by wagon for negotiations in Brussels.
Instead, they chose the second option — completely toothless. Condemn and forgive. A powerful pro-Russian lobby in the EU, primarily in Germany, and a helpless peacemaker Obama in the US. All worked together to “overlook” the problem. And keep making money. Before that, there was Chechnya. Then Crimea. Donbas. And all of it — world leaders swallowed calmly. They preferred to fight not the real threat, but corruption in Ukraine and for gender equality across the Western world. Hoping it would all just go away. But these kinds of problems in global politics — they’re not a silly influencer or Solovyov’s son in London. They don’t just go away on their own.
The war in Ukraine, 2022 — already full-scale. What was the world’s reaction? More waiting. Will it go away? The bunker rat will quickly capture Ukraine and fall into friendly hibernation? They seriously expected this. Many were even openly annoyed by Ukraine’s successful resistance — it didn’t follow the script. So what? Total blockade of Russia? NATO in Ukraine defending global stability? Not even close. No tanks, no missiles (well, okay, missiles — but don’t hit Russia), no aircraft. Because that would cause escalation! There’s nuclear weapons there!
If not for Ukraine’s unscripted resistance, the Russian army would already be in Warsaw, Prague, Sofia, and Bucharest. Maybe even Berlin. I don’t have much faith in the Alliance’s readiness at that time to respond to rapidly developing threats. The attempt to sit it out and stay quiet is doomed. A thug only grows bolder when unpunished. And becomes an example. Now here’s your war between India and Pakistan. If China moves on Taiwan tomorrow — no one will even be surprised. Or say a word.
What’s next? The Balkans, with Kremlin support? Trump talking up a “great deal,” Witkoff flying in to listen to Putin’s nonsense? The EU will do nothing — they can’t even muster a joint force of 25,000 soldiers. Who was it talking about World War III risks in 5 to 10 years? Here it is — early delivery. No miracle fix is coming. You can’t put the meat back in the grinder. The only option is to look for a way out with fewer losses. But without war, hard decisions, and real consequences — it’s already too late. Time to stop fooling ourselves.
