The Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau, in its annual report on security threats to the country and the world, emphasizes that Russia perceives the war in Ukraine as a confrontation with the Western world. At present, Moscow's main goal is to reduce Western support for Ukraine.
According to LSM, the intelligence service notes that the further development of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has entered a protracted phase, will depend on which country can sustain its armed forces at the highest level in the long term. Therefore, Russia's strategy is to continue fighting until Ukraine exhausts its strength.
The main goal of Russia's foreign policy at the moment is to reduce the level of support for Ukraine among Western countries. To achieve this, Russia seeks to diminish the unity of allies and influence the unity of society, especially in countries where elections are forthcoming. Moreover, Russia's failure to bring once neutral Finland and Sweden into NATO is considered its biggest failure.
The Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) also points out that during the course of the full-scale war, the Russian army has gained significant experience, including in countering Western weaponry. This, along with several other factors, increases the risk of Russian military aggression against NATO.
The Latvian intelligence service notes that discussions about life after Putin are taking place within the Russian elite. Therefore, despite the apparent stability of the Putin regime, it will face new and often unexpected challenges as the economic situation worsens. However, acknowledging this does not necessarily mean that there is genuine preparation for a change of power in Russia.
Over the past year, it has become more difficult for Russians to spread their disinformation. As a result, social media platforms, especially Telegram and TikTok, have significantly increased in importance for Russian propaganda. Latvian intelligence services note that last year, Russian resources disseminated discrediting propaganda films about former President Egils Levits, new President Edgars RinkÄ“viÄs, and Prime Minister Ä’riks ŠÄ·Ä“le.
SAB also pointed out that the rhetoric of the Russian Embassy in Latvia has become noticeably sharper and more provocative. Overall, Russia no longer wants or is unable to pretend to be a friendly country and is increasingly willing to openly demonstrate its hostile attitude.
The Constitution Protection Bureau pays special attention to two other countries - Belarus and China. According to the intelligence service, Belarus, like Russia, will continue to pose threats to Latvia through various manifestations of hybrid warfare.
As for China, experts warn of its desire to use economic leverage to pressure other countries. Furthermore, the recent trip of Latvian parliamentarians to China is also viewed negatively because "such trips may not only be aimed at friendly cooperation and presenting opportunities but may also contain deliberate attempts to create contacts with certain individuals, knowledge, influence, and access to information that are attractive to China."
