The military coup in Guinea-Bissau in November 2025 has created opportunities for Russia to strengthen its influence in the country, according to experts from the Robert Lansing Institute.
The army overthrew President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and appointed General Horta N’Ta Na Man as interim leader, suspending elections and the work of parliament.
Guinea-Bissau is a small and chronically unstable state with deep political fragmentation, a history of coups, and strong influence from the narco-economy, analysts note. Embaló came to power after the disputed 2019 elections, repeatedly dissolved parliament, and clashed with the PAIGC coalition, which deepened the elite’s distrust of electoral and judicial institutions.
The coup was the result of the disputed presidential election of 23 November 2025, when both candidates — Embaló and his opponent Fernando Dias — declared themselves the winners. There were rumors of electoral commission manipulation involving politicians and drug traffickers, while the army justified its intervention by claiming a threat of falsification of the results.
Senior military leadership, calling itself the “High Military Command for the Restoration of Order,” seized state television, closed the borders, and appointed General Horta N’Ta Na Man as interim president for one year. The junta’s main goals were to ensure the corporate survival of officers, control state resources, and consolidate its own power amid instability.
Embaló, leader of the Madem-G15 movement, called the coup a “false attempt at a coup d’état,” while the opposition sees it as depriving them of a likely election victory and an attempt to annul the results. At the same time, the army and officials involved in the narco-economy gained additional opportunities to preserve their income and influence.
The coup was condemned by ECOWAS and the African Union, as well as the US, EU, and Portugal. They demand the release of detainees, the restoration of constitutional order, and are considering possible sanctions. Despite this, Russia may use the emerging political instability to strengthen its influence by offering assistance in security, port modernization, fisheries, and access to resources.
According to experts, Russia did not directly participate in the coup, but the crisis creates favorable conditions for opportunistic expansion of its influence, especially within fragile institutions and sectors linked to the narco-economy. Thus, the internal crisis in Guinea-Bissau aligns with Moscow’s interests in undermining regional Western institutions and seeking new access points to Africa’s Atlantic coast.
