The elections in two eastern German federal states—Saxony and Thuringia—this past weekend may not have garnered widespread attention, as they were not national elections. However, they symbolize a shift in the European political landscape—one that is, frankly, troubling for us. In Thuringia, nearly half of the votes went to parties that are categorically opposed to aiding Ukraine—Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the party of Sahra Wagenknecht. In Saxony, the results were slightly less severe but still concerning. The parties in the governing coalition received dismal results, and the opposition, led by the Christian Democrats, offered nothing particularly surprising.
Now the question is who will form the regional coalitions and whether that is even possible, but for us, these elections confirmed two challenges. First, the difficulty not just in increasing but even in maintaining German military aid. There is now no doubt that the reduction in this aid next year is not merely due to budget deficits—it is a reaction to shifts in domestic political dynamics, the rise of pro-Russian populists, and the resulting decrease in maneuverability for the governing coalition, if any maneuverability exists at all.
But there is also a long-term challenge—Germany has become the last major European country where mainstream 20th-century parties—Christian Democrats, Liberals, Social Democrats, and Greens—no longer dictate policy as they once did. Instead, populists—left, right, and otherwise—are capable of winning elections and offering their simplistic solutions. This will have a colossal impact on the process of our European integration—its conditions and timeline, which we can hardly imagine at this point.
However, we can already imagine the amount of effort and money that Russia will deploy to stop and derail our path to the EU. We must learn to work with "positive," i.e., pro-Ukrainian populists, and find levers against the "negative," pro-Russian ones—ideally, by pitting them against other populists. Europe will never be the same as before; populism is the new normal, and we must find an answer to it.
The price at stake is our path to the EU.
