The Russian Federation is conducting a large-scale hybrid campaign against Moldova aimed at undermining the country’s European trajectory and destabilizing the region, according to the Robert Lansing Institute.
Experts note that Moscow sees Moldova as a convenient testing ground for hybrid operations against the entire West. Russia seeks not only to maintain influence in the country but also to use Moldovan territory as a channel to destabilize neighboring states, primarily Romania and Ukraine.
The report highlights that the Kremlin has intensified the activities of its intelligence agencies, propaganda networks, and affiliated political forces to weaken support for European integration in Moldova and discredit local leadership. Russian strategy includes disinformation campaigns, funding pro-Russian parties, cyberattacks, and attempts to undermine trust in state institutions.
Analysts point out that Moscow has long prepared for this scenario, using Moldova as a “laboratory” to refine methods of information-psychological influence and political destabilization, which can later be applied against other European countries.
According to RLI, after previous attempts to destabilize Moldova in 2023–2024 failed, Russia changed tactics — shifting from direct protests and attempts to change the government toward “managed chaos.” Moscow deliberately exacerbates internal divisions within society, promoting narratives about “government corruption” and “threats to national identity” due to the EU integration course.
The report gives special attention to Transnistria, which the Kremlin still considers a tool of pressure on Chișinău. RLI emphasizes that the Russian military presence in the region serves not only as a security factor for pro-Russian forces but also as leverage, allowing Moscow to control political processes in the country.
Institute experts stress that Moldovan authorities face the dual challenge of strengthening internal resilience while countering external threats. RLI warns that Russia may attempt to replicate in Moldova elements of scenarios previously used in Ukraine — including campaigns to discredit elections, support for pro-Russian rallies, and pressure on state media.
Analysts underline that the Kremlin’s main goal is not necessarily to bring Moldova under direct control but to make it a zone of instability on the EU’s eastern border, diverting Western attention from Russia’s war against Ukraine and draining EU and NATO resources.
RLI recommends that Western countries strengthen support for Chișinău, including countering disinformation, assisting with cybersecurity, and strategic communication. Experts warn that Moldova has already become a kind of “testing ground” for new Russian hybrid tools, and ignoring this process could spread the threat across the entire region.
