For 2025, Ukraine’s real GDP is expected to grow by approximately 1.9%, in line with the forecast made by the National Bank in October, the NBU press service reports.
“According to the NBU’s October forecast, in Q4 2025 economic recovery will accelerate to 3.4% thanks to expanded budgetary stimulus and private consumption. Considering results from previous quarters, the NBU expects that full-year 2025 real GDP growth will be close to the October forecast (1.9%),” the statement reads.
In the coming years, the NBU anticipates moderate acceleration of economic growth (to 2–3%) due to higher harvests and increased investment in reconstruction and defense projects.
The NBU also analyzed macroeconomic results for Q3 2025 in detail.
As forecasted, the pace of economic recovery accelerated compared to July–September 2025, mainly driven by expanded budget expenditures. Improved conditions in the energy sector in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024 also contributed to economic growth.
Recovery was supported by strong domestic demand. Government sector consumption increased by 12.2% year-on-year, making the largest positive contribution to real GDP growth (4.1 percentage points), enabled by significant international funding. Household final consumption continued to rise (6.7% y/y), contributing positively to GDP dynamics (3.9 percentage points).
Alongside increased construction activity, investments in agricultural processing and defense projects continued to grow. Analysts note that significant capital expenditures by the state budget also supported this trend, with nominal volumes in Q3 among the highest since the start of the full-scale invasion (exceeded only in Q4 2023 and 2024).
At the same time, physical export volumes declined due to low agricultural stockpiles, weak demand for mining and metallurgy products, and new EU trade conditions, resulting in a negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth of 8.9 percentage points.
Economic results by sector were uneven. Strong domestic demand and government support programs led to a sharp acceleration in construction output (up 31.5% y/y) and growth in trade (up 2.6% y/y).
The decline in agriculture slowed to 12.3%, partly due to the transfer of some harvests from Q2 to Q3. Poultry production remained generally stable, while livestock production continued to decrease.
The transport sector continued to decline, deepening to –9.3% y/y amid reduced export shipments.
“The course of the full-scale war remains the main risk to economic development. Additionally, GDP dynamics may be affected by risks related to irregular or insufficient external financing,” the NBU noted.
At the same time, the NBU does not rule out positive scenarios, driven by increased international aid and the global community’s efforts to secure a just peace for Ukraine.
