Belarus, actually occupied by Russia, has provided its territories for the deployment of the army, but an offensive from there can take place without the involvement of Belarusians.
Russian human rights activist and opposition politician Mark Feygin talked about this on Channel 24.
“Russian troops move around the territory of Belarus wherever they want and use its territory as they please. At the same time, the self-proclaimed President Lukashenko cannot or does not want to resist. Until now, he has resisted only one thing - the direct involvement of the Belarusian army in the war with the Ukrainians. So far, he has succeeded, but it is not clear how long it will last," Feygin said.
According to the expert, an offensive from Belarus can take place even without its army's involvement.
“Russian troops have already attacked from there in February, so it’s not worth saying that now they are just redeploying just like that because this already happened in 2021,†Feygin said.
In his opinion, Russian or Russian-Belarusian troops can indeed enter Ukraine again from the north. However, this time they will probably go not to Kyiv, realizing the meaninglessness of this, but to Lviv to cut off the supply of weapons from Poland to Ukraine.
"In this, I believe. Whether it comes out or not, it’s more likely not than that,†said the opposition human rights activist.
According to Feigin, about the offensive against Ukraine, Belarus will most likely behave the way it has been doing for the ninth month.
“Verily, they support Russia more, but in reality, they are 50/50, for example, they give weapons and ammunition to Russia, while they do everything not to participate in the war. One way or another, Belarus is an ally of the occupiers in this war,†he said.
At present, the link6 Moscow-Minsk-Tehran has become obvious. However, the Russian Federation will have no more allies. In this situation, Belarus has nowhere to go, unlike Iran.
“Belarus acts as if it is running along some kind of corridor. It’s just trying to run slower so as not to get to the final point so quickly because it’s clear what it will be,†Feygin added.
