In its October inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine revised upward its forecast for the 2025 grain and legume harvest to 61.5 million tons, up from 57.9 million tons in the July report, while lowering the estimate for oilseeds to 19.3 million tons from 21.0 million tons.
According to the NBU, in 2026–2027 grain and legume harvests are expected to increase further due to improved agricultural productivity and the expansion of corn and other grain crops in regions less affected by climate change.
However, the central bank expects oilseed yields — concentrated mainly in southern regions — to decline because of the negative impact of climate change, worsened by the long-term consequences of the Kakhovka dam destruction for the region’s irrigation systems.
“The security situation in the southern frontline regions will also continue to affect the sowing campaign for the 2026 harvest and slow down the pace of land demining,” the report notes.
As a result, the NBU improved its forecast for grain production in 2026 from 59.6 million tons to 62.9 million tons, and for 2027 — from 60.4 million tons to 63.5 million tons.
At the same time, oilseed forecasts were lowered to 21.4 million tons for 2026 (from 22.0 million) and to 22.2 million tons for 2027 (from 22.8 million).
The NBU also expects the livestock sector to continue contributing negatively to the agricultural sector’s gross value added due to further herd reductions, except in poultry farming.
According to the State Statistics Service, as of October 1, 2025, the early crop harvest (wheat, barley, rapeseed, and legumes) reached 32.6 million tons, compared to 31.9 million tons in 2024 (+2.1%). The increase was driven mainly by higher wheat (+3.9%) and legume (+35%) yields, while barley output remained nearly unchanged (-0.6%) and rapeseed production declined by 10.7%.
