Ukraine's annual inflation rate is forecast to reach 12.5% in 2026, with the consequences of Russian attacks alone adding 0.7 percentage points to the forecast.
Andriy Pyshnyy, Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), announced this during a briefing.
"The inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised to 12.5%. According to NBU estimates, the consequences of Russian attacks alone will add approximately 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. Other important factors affecting price dynamics include rising fuel costs and the expansion of fiscal stimulus," Pyshnyy said.
According to the NBU's forecast, inflation is expected to slow to 7.3% year-on-year in 2027, supported by an anticipated decline in global oil prices and monetary policy measures.
Pyshnyy stated that the National Bank would continue to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets and the stability of the foreign exchange market, helping to limit inflationary pressures.
Inflation is also expected to be restrained by a likely cooling of domestic demand and the labour market in the coming months as a result of Russian attacks.
Inflation is still expected to return to the NBU's 5% target in 2028. This will depend on a gradual easing of pressure on businesses' production costs and an increase in the domestic supply of goods and services.
