Lukashenko, at the request of Putin, has already disarmed his armed forced. Therefore, an offensive by Belarus against Ukraine is becoming less likely every day.
Political expert Dmitry Vasiliev believes that the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko was ready to enter the war against Ukraine but changed his mind. He stated this in an interview with TSN.
“I had the feeling that Lukashenko was nevertheless passed over the knee by Putin, and he was ready to throw his troops into Ukraine. Because there were certain markers: calling our ambassador and presenting a note with quite serious rhetoric not only from the Foreign Ministry but also from Lukashenka that Ukraine is ready to attack Belarus and Belarus will defend itself. Other markers that we observed said that Lukashenko was already forced, apparently, he would go, and perhaps this would happen this week," Vasilyev said.
According to the expert, the Belarusian dictator watched the events in Ukraine during a massive missile attack and waited for the reaction of the Ukrainians to understand whether to enter the war.
"I think that Lukashenko looked at October 10-11 very carefully, and he had a clear idea, like the Russians, that this would break us, scare us, the whole Western world would be scared. And taking advantage of such confusion, perhaps they are from the north could go on the attack. I do not exclude that it could be the common troops of Belarusians and Russians who would attack Ukraine. It is clear that what we hear from General Naev, who is in charge of the Joint Forces in this area of ​​the border, but it is still possible. This would distract us, our resources, and our soldiers from the key fronts, where we are now gradually winning, but when Lukashenko saw that there was no such reaction of confusion among Ukrainians and the Western world, but on the contrary, Ukrainians were even more stubborn in the fight. The Western world understood even better what Russia is, and clearly spoke about the plans for armaments that would be provided to Ukraine. I think he swung in that swing and decided to go back," he said.
The expert also added that if Belarus enters the war against Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will still have to fight the occupiers on their own without NATO intervention.
“As long as Ukraine can defend itself on its own, NATO countries will not interfere with their armed forces in this war. Yes, assistance is being provided, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the people of Ukraine are fighting against this enemy with their own forces. We will continue to fight against these combined troops of Russia and Belarus. NATO intervention in the war is the beginning of World War III," he stressed.
Vasiliev believes that every day the Belarusian army is less and less ready for an offensive because Putin disarmed Belarus.
“Those markers indicate that the Belarusian army is less and less ready to enter this war. The amount of weapons being decommissioned, the conservation of Belarusian weapons and transferred to the Russians is massive. The disarmament of the Belarusian army is taking place before our eyes. It is also beneficial for Putin, because, due to the weakening of the Belarusian army, he hopes to somehow “wind through†Ukraine in the future and then painlessly occupy Belarus completely for himself. I think that's what they're counting on. Lukashenko has no choice but to hand over weapons anyway and show that they no longer have enough of them to join the war. Therefore, such a swing occurs," the expert summed up.
