The potential rise to power of leaders from France's far-right National Rally party, including Marine Le Pen, poses a direct threat to the European Union's long-term financial and military support for Ukraine, according to analysts at the Robert Lansing Institute (RLI).
The political movement's intentions to block the EU's 2028–2034 multiannual financial framework, worth approximately €2 trillion, and completely halt bilateral arms supplies to Kyiv go far beyond traditional Euroscepticism.
As one of Europe's two nuclear powers and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, France possesses considerable leverage to paralyse key EU budgetary decisions. This risks turning Franco-Ukrainian relations and decision-making mechanisms in Brussels into instruments of recurring political blackmail.
RLI analysts emphasise that ending long-term funding and military equipment deliveries from France would objectively advance the Kremlin's key strategic objectives without requiring direct confrontation with NATO.
Undermining the predictability of financial assistance to Ukraine and weakening unity among European states would reinforce the Russian leadership's belief that it can prolong the war until political changes occur in Western countries.
Even in the absence of direct evidence that France's far-right politicians are coordinating their activities with Russian intelligence services, the party's past financial ties to Russian banks and Le Pen's public refusal to recognise Russia as the principal threat to European security create favourable conditions for Moscow.
If Paris forms a coalition with other Eurosceptic governments following the 2027 elections, Europe's collective security system could face a systemic crisis.
