The International Monetary Fund has improved its forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy to 4.5% by the end of this year. This was reported by the press service of the National Bank based on the results of the IMF Mission's work with Ukraine.
During the second review of the Extended Fund Facility programme, IMF experts highly praised the extraordinary resilience of the Ukrainian economy. The latest economic data indicate a more powerful economic recovery in 2023 than expected, with a significant reduction in inflation rates, substantial international reserves, and a stable foreign exchange market, according to the NBU.
"IMF staff are expecting a stronger recovery of the Ukrainian economy. They upgraded their estimate of Ukraine’s real GDP growth for 2023 to 4.5%, up from the previous range of 1% to 3% estimated when the first EFF review was completed" the statement said.
However, growth is expected to soften to a range of 3% to 4% in 2024 as the war continues, and downside risks to the outlook remain large.
The IMF staff and the Ukrainian authorities also held discussions for the 2023 Article IV consultation. The IMF mission welcomed the recommendation of the European Commission to open negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU, noting that Ukraine has major upside potential once the war tapers off, provided that economic policy and reforms are implemented correctly and adequate financing is disbursed. Well-managed post-war reconstruction coupled with decisive reforms (including on public investment management, governance, and business environment) in the context of EU accession should stimulate the return of migrants and investment flows needed to set the economy on a sustainably stronger growth footing and help to achieve Ukraine’s broader development goals.
