Ukraine's Winter forecasts 2022-2023
Forecasters note that they drew conclusions from the analysis of temperature indicators over the past decades.
Recently, reports of extremely severe winter of 2022-2023 have been circulating in the media and social networks. Such information does not have a scientific basis and scientifically based methodological calculations.
The press service of the Hydrometeorological Centre of Ukraine reported this on Facebook.
The current development of meteorological science worldwide does not allow forecasting the development of atmospheric processes with such great prematureness.
At the same time, thanks to meteorological observations, which are 80-100 or more years old in most regions of Ukraine, the creation of appropriate databases by Ukrainian meteorologists with the ability to analyze such large amounts of information and determine trends (directions) in the temperature regime in Ukraine.
This approach makes it possible to assess the likelihood of various scenarios for the development of a synoptic situation, give recommendations on the expected temperature regime in different seasons of the year, and take these recommendations into account when making management decisions.
The results of the analysis of temperature indicators in Ukraine over the past 30 years indicate the following:
- the transition of the average daily temperature through +8 degrees downwards (the beginning of the heating period) even in the northern regions of Ukraine is carried out in the third decade of October, in other regions of Ukraine in early November and later;
- the average monthly temperature of the winter period (especially in January and February) increased by 2.0-2.5 degrees;
- significantly reduced the duration of the winter period with temperatures below zero degrees;
- the sum of negative temperatures during the winter period decreased by 2 times;
- each winter, a large number of temperature records of relatively high temperatures are recorded for the entire period of meteorological observations;
- the transition of the average daily temperature in spring through +8 degrees upwards is carried out in the first decade of April and earlier (the end of the heating period).
Based on the results of the analysis of temperature indicators over the past decades, the following conclusions can be drawn:
- the average temperature of the winter period for the period December-February is expected to be 1-2 degrees above the norm calculated for the period 1991-2020;.
- the probability of prolonged cold weather in winter in Ukraine is minimal;
- short-term significant cold snaps lasting 1-5 days are pretty likely;
- the transfer of the beginning of the heating period to a later date and its end to an earlier date is justified and confirmed by meteorological calculations.