During the transition period between the old and new harvests, the wheat market in Ukraine is showing mixed signals, but the long-term outlook remains positive, according to the analytical cooperative Pusk, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
"The market is essentially in an off-season. The old harvest has been almost entirely traded — there is still some demand, but it is not significant. The market is gradually starting to dip. Last week saw a short-term price drop, but by the end of the week, the market had returned to an upward trend," the analysts said.
In their view, amid declining global supply and increasing weather risks in key producing countries — particularly in Russia and the United States — the new Ukrainian harvest has every chance to remain competitive.
"Weather risks are significant. Wheat is likely to be expensive in the new season. Already in the fall, prices for third-class wheat may reach $230–240 per ton, and in the second half of the season — up to $260," the experts forecast.
At the same time, the European market remains problematic for the sale of Ukrainian wheat.
"Starting June 6, Ukraine returns to the pre-war trade model with the EU — including tariffs and quotas, which will significantly limit exports to Europe. That’s why traders are already actively turning toward Asia: the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh. In these countries, Ukrainian wheat is in high demand," Pusk noted.
According to the experts, farmers should not rush into forward contracts, as supply remains low and there is potential for prices to increase by $2–3 per week.
