Why did Putin start claiming that Russia is the only guarantor of Ukraine's independence?
In short, Russia is becoming increasingly immersed in its own alternative reality, where victory in the war is supposedly just around the corner and the Russian economy is booming.
1. Anyone who works with information knows that one of the most difficult and important tasks for a PR strategist is choosing the right target audience. Strange as it may sound, since the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum it has become increasingly apparent that the main — and sometimes the only — target audience for Putin's speeches is Putin himself. His speechwriters are producing speeches that Putin himself needs to hear, making him virtually the sole intended audience. That is why we hear claims such as, "Russia did not attack Ukraine," or that "Russia is the guarantor of Ukraine's territorial integrity."
2. I do not believe that Putin is being deprived of information. Rather, I think he has reached a point where he consciously rejects information he does not like. He appears to be approaching a mindset of: "If I don't like it, then it doesn't exist."
3. This is a rather advanced stage of his deterioration, especially considering his paranoia and the fact that the entire system is built primarily around ensuring his security and comfort. One possible hypothesis—which will have to be tested over time—is that his inner circle is now becoming both smaller and more dependent on anticipating his moods. Rather than simply filtering information to match his preferences, those around him are also gaining opportunities to frighten him with stories of betrayal. Traber, the Rotenberg brothers, and Navrusova are only the beginning of what could become a war of all against all.
4. The favorites this summer appear to be Sergei Chemezov (Rostec), Sergei Korolyov (First Deputy Director of the FSB), and, seemingly, the Kovalchuk brothers. This is something worth watching, but it is already possible to say that one of the main trends within Russia's elite is becoming the search for compromising material on rivals. If this dynamic gathers momentum—and there is every reason to believe it might—the situation within the elite will become even more complicated.
5. This summer also shows some signs—again, more time is needed before this hypothesis can become a firm conclusion—that Putin's role as the ultimate arbiter is weakening. He is no longer standing above the fray. Instead, he is increasingly becoming just another participant in the struggle.
We will continue to watch how this develops.
