The world has changed, and it didn’t change with Trump’s arrival. Rather, Trump came to power precisely because the world had already changed. And I am trying to explain that a new reality has emerged. Trump is merely a symptom of it. Yet many people feel upset, angry, even offended. Yes, the old world with its liberal order was familiar and understandable to many. One could endlessly talk about human rights, freedoms, respect, about “peace, friendship, and chewing gum.” That is why many continue to live under the illusion that once Trump leaves, everything will fall back into place. No. And here is why.
In Britain, for the first time in a hundred years, a third party—Reform UK, right-wing populists—has taken first place in parliamentary polling (25–34%). The two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, trail it by 5–10% in various polls. Support for Keir Starmer has fallen so sharply that I predict early elections next year. In Germany, Alternative for Germany is leading parliamentary polls with 25–26%. This has never happened since World War II. Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc is slightly behind, but the trend is clear. In France, the far-right National Rally (the former Marine Le Pen bloc) is firmly and unequivocally in first place with 30–36% in different polls. President Macron’s party, En Marche, is in second place with 20–24%. Accordingly, the far-right candidate Jordan Bardella leads the presidential race with 33–36%, while the establishment candidate, Gabriel Attal, stands at 18–19%.
These are three major, key Western countries. The same trends are visible in countries with far less influence and have already long been realized in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Romania was “saved by a miracle,” but this is unlikely to help in the next elections. All these right-wing parties and politicians are mini-copies of Trump and his agenda. Within three to five years, the West will be unrecognizable. And all your complaints about Trump will be multiplied tenfold by his mini-copies around the world.
Unlike many who are now shouting “everything is lost” and “Trump is to blame for everything,” I believe this new world opens up tremendous opportunities for Ukraine. The old world was rigidly defined, and within it we had almost no chance of joining the EU or NATO. Once, a Member of the European Parliament told me this bluntly: you will not join the EU because we admitted Romania and Bulgaria, and we will not repeat that experience. In the new world, the EU and NATO will, in effect, cease to exist. In their place will come new, pragmatic coalitions that will be far more effective than these bureaucratic wrecks.
The new world will be a world of hard pragmatism: a race for profits, the growth of military power, and control over energy and trade flows. And for the first time in many years, Ukraine is entering a new era holding strong cards. We have a frontline army with an advanced defense industry. Any new coalition would be glad to have us on board. However, we must change our foreign policy from slogans to concrete calculations. We need to put clear financial models of investment, trade, and defense on the table. The era of declarations and slogans about peace and human rights is falling into the abyss. Taking power in its place are dealmakers, often successful businesspeople, who know how to make money and defend their interests. With such people, one must be precise and concrete, understand what interests them, and where everyone stands to gain.
