In 2026, the Russian economy is entering a phase of “expensive money,” which is becoming the new normal amid the war against Ukraine and prolonged macroeconomic instability. According to signals from the Bank of Russia, the high cost of capital is expected to persist for a long time, forcing businesses to abandon inertia-driven planning, reduce investments, and strictly manage working capital.
Russian companies will be compelled to revise project payback periods, payment deferral terms, and the actual cost of borrowed funds. As a result, even with formally stable demand, caution increases and willingness to pursue growth declines.
An additional blow to business comes from tax policy. Since January 1, 2026, Russia has implemented an increased VAT rate of 22%. This complicates settlements with counterparties, raises the risk of tax disputes, and increases administrative burdens—especially painful for small and medium-sized enterprises in a wartime economy.
The labor market remains strained: there are more job openings than workers. Low unemployment, combined with mobilization and demographic losses, means increased competition for personnel and pressure on wage funds for companies. At the same time, expected slowing of wage growth is forcing businesses to replace “wage competition” with automation, function cuts, and higher demands for versatile skills.
Problems are also accumulating in logistics. Mandatory electronic documentation and tighter regulation of international shipments create risks of delays and inspections. For marketplace sellers, the situation is worsened by new platform economy rules, higher taxes, and regulatory uncertainty, sharply increasing the cost of any mistake.
Taken together, these factors show that the economic consequences of the war against Ukraine are increasingly hitting Russia’s domestic business environment. Instead of growth and investment, companies are forced to focus on survival, legal defense, and risk minimization, signaling systemic economic degradation in the medium term.
