The situation at the front is taking on another critical shape for us across a number of directions. This was expected. It’s all a consequence of personnel decisions—or, in this case, the lack thereof.
Overall, I am not a proponent of the strategy of holding every meter of our land at any cost. That’s a simple tactical approach. On a strategic level—the level where wars are truly won—I believe we must assign a price to every kilometer in terms of the number of Russian forces destroyed. Only one thing can bring us closer to ending the war and preserving the state: irreparable losses for the Russian troops—in manpower, equipment, economy, and more.
However, there’s another side to the coin—why the loss of Pokrovsk would add fuel to the fire. The fact is, the laws of physics apply: the Russian forces suffering massive losses becomes demoralized. Orc society also becomes demoralized—even despite their stupidity, they find no joy in every newly captured village. But taking Pokrovsk would be a massive motivational gain. "Putin" would be right again, because here at last is something they've taken. And the orcs would get a second wind.
Putin fights for symbols. And he knows why: because symbols are the foundation of the orcs’ belief system. Capturing symbolic locations affirms the righteousness of their path. The lack of symbolic victories, on the other hand, signals defeat and the absence of divine favor.
I’m convinced that if we had managed to hold the key cities in Donbas until the end of the year, we could have demoralized the orc army and neutralized their propaganda. But reality is against us. We lack people, we lack resources, we lack competence. And yet, everything possible is being done to prevent this outcome.
Losing Pokrovsk or other cities will “give wings to the Russians”—wings our troops have spent a year and a half clipping. And that is even worse than high oil prices.
But there is also good news. Perhaps only the problems at the front will sober up the many people who seem to have forgotten that we are at war.