Steps taken by Russian President Vladimir Putin to ensure his personal security — from repression and war to eliminating any clear succession mechanism — are undermining the stability of the system he has created, according to analysts at the Robert Lansing Institute (RLI).
In conversations with members of his inner circle, Putin reportedly used the phrase “They will hang me,” reflecting the fate of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. According to the analysis, fear of sharing the Libyan leader’s fate has transformed the prolonged war against Ukraine from a geopolitical project into a fundamental instrument for legitimising and maintaining Putin’s rule, without which the stability of the regime would come under direct threat.
The Kremlin’s personalist system, the analysts argue, has concentrated institutional mechanisms and arbitration between security and financial clans around a single figure. Putin cannot appoint a strong successor because that person would immediately become an alternative centre of power, potentially triggering an internal coup.
The continued intensification of repression intended to ensure officials’ loyalty also distorts the information reaching the leadership: the bureaucracy reports only information it considers acceptable, sharply increasing the risk of major strategic miscalculations and narrowing the scope for compromise with the West.
Ending the war poses greater risks to the Kremlin than continuing it, according to the analysis, because it would force elites to assess the accumulated costs and consequences of sanctions while competing over diminishing resources. Citing CNAS and Chatham House, the article argues that the principal threat to the regime comes not from street protests but from a potential split within Russia’s security establishment, including the FSB, National Guard and military.
The critical moment would come when Russia’s security and financial elites conclude that keeping Putin in power poses a greater threat to their personal survival and assets than his departure.
