Military expert, military instructor pilot, and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan in an interview with Unian, explaind why there are many conflicting statements on the counter-offensive.
"What is happening now in the information field is called the "fog of war", and the more we let it in, the better it will be for our troops, which will launch an offensive where the Russians do not expect them. This fog is deliberately let in, and even higher leadership is included in it, and this is very competent and correct. Russian analytical centers try to analyze this information are going crazy. All A4 paper has already run out there, they have already begun to ask China not for shells but for this paper. Therefore, in this sense, one must be critical of all such statements.
There are mechanisms for conducting military operations, but the weather also affects them, based on the density of the soil and soil moisture. That is, looking at the past year, we can have only one campaign - this is the summer campaign of any year. The winter campaign is already impossible for us - there is no frost. Then it rains. Vehicles and armed forces can only move during the summer campaign. It starts with greenery, with the sun and after the soil dries out. The sooner this campaign is started, the better, because there are only 5-6 months to carry it out, and then again autumn rains, a stop and moments associated with the freezing of hostilities. Based on this logic of war, we will attack as soon as we can move either on a dry surface or, if the task is set, to move on paved roads, for example, if the task is to move in the agglomeration area - Donetsk agglomeration, Luhansk agglomeration. Paved roads don't care if it's raining or not. As soon as there is an opportunity, we will immediately start moving.
Those proposed postponements of the start of the offensive, for example, for the summer, may highlight another positive question for us, if it is decided to hand over the planes to us. Today, for example, we decide to hand over the planes, in two or three months, we can receive them, then it may be worth waiting until the transfer of the planes, since aviation itself plays the role of an icebreaker in offensive operations. First, air defense is destroyed by electronic warfare systems and anti-radar missiles. Then bombers and attack aircraft enter, which simply plow several tens of kilometers of concrete fortifications, any enemy fortifications. And then the troops are already starting to go there. In this case, there is an order of magnitude less loss when aviation is operating, so everything will depend on the weather and aviation, and then we'll see."
