Survey: Economic situation in Ukraine: 64% rate it poor, 13% struggle with food insecurity

Results of the sociological survey conducted by the Razumkov Center's sociological service from June 6 to June 12, 2024, within the framework of the Civic Engagement Program "Get Involved!", financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by Pact in Ukraine.

Citizens of Ukraine are quite skeptical about the country's economic situation: in May 2021, eight months before the full-scale war began, 60% of respondents rated it as "very poor" or "rather poor" (with only 5% considering it "good" or "very good" and 32% as "neither poor nor good"). By September-October 2022, seven months after the war started, the proportion of citizens rating it as "very poor" or "rather poor" increased to 64.5%. These ratings saw improvement in February-March 2023, with a decrease in negative assessments even compared to the "pre-war" period: at that time, 55% rated the economic situation in the country as "very poor" or "rather poor" (4% as "good" or "very good" and 37% as "neither poor nor good"). According to the survey conducted in December 2023, these ratings deteriorated (66.5%, 3%, and 27%, respectively). The latest survey in June 2024 shows similar figures to those of December 2023 (64%, 3%, and 30%).

The level of personal family prosperity is generally viewed more positively by citizens than the economic situation in the country. In May 2021, only 36% rated it as "very" or "rather" poor, 48% as "neither poor nor good," and 14% as "good" or "very good." By September-October 2022, the percentage of citizens rating it as "very" or "rather" poor slightly increased to 39%, with those considering it "good" or "very good" decreasing to 10%. According to the survey conducted in February-March 2023, similar to the assessment of the economic situation, the assessment of family prosperity slightly improved and approached the levels observed in May 2021: 35% rated it as "very" or "rather" poor, 50% as "neither poor nor good," and 12% as "good" or "very good." In December 2023, the ratings of family prosperity slightly deteriorated (37%, 51%, and 10.5%), statistically not significantly different from those observed in September-October 2022. However, the results of the June 2024 survey show some improvement compared to December last year (37%, 47%, and 14%) due to a slight increase in the overall proportion of those who rate their family prosperity as "good" or "very good."

Before the full-scale war, citizens were not too optimistic about rapid changes in the economic sphere: in May 2021, only 12% believed that the country's economic situation would improve in the next 3 months, and 13% hoped that their family's prosperity would improve during that time. More often, citizens expected the situation to remain largely unchanged: 56% did not anticipate changes in these areas.

In September-October 2022, the proportion of those expecting a worsening economic situation increased significantly to 35% (due to a decrease to 37.5% in the proportion of those believing that the situation would remain unchanged), with only 9.5% believing that the situation would improve. According to the survey conducted in February-March 2023, the proportion of those expecting a worsening economic situation within 3 months decreased to 23%, with an increase in those expecting improvement (13%) and those believing that it would not change (45%). However, citizens' expectations for the short-term worsened from the second half of 2023 onwards. As of June 2024, 7% believe that the economic situation will improve in the next 3 months, 34% expect it to deteriorate, and 46% believe it will not change significantly.

Similar trends were observed in the expected changes in the short-term perspective of family prosperity. According to the latest survey, 7% believe it will improve during this period, 28% believe it will worsen, and 51% believe it will remain unchanged.

After the start of the large-scale war, there was a significant improvement in economic expectations in the medium-term (2-3 years). Thus, the proportion of those expecting the country's economic situation to improve in the next 2-3 years increased from 30% in May 2021 to 43% in September-October 2022 and to 52% in February-March 2023. However, this optimism subsequently decreased, and in June 2024, only 29% believed so. The proportion of those expecting the situation to worsen is 25%, and those who believe it will not change significantly is 19%.

The proportion of those expecting their family's prosperity to improve in the next 2-3 years increased from 29% in May 2021 to 41% in September-October 2022 and to 49.5% in February-March 2023. According to the latest survey, this proportion decreased to 29%. Those expecting a decline in family prosperity account for 21%, while those expecting no change account for 22%.

The face-to-face survey was conducted in Vinnytsia, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and Chernivtsi regions, as well as in Kyiv city. In Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, the survey was conducted only in territories controlled by the government of Ukraine and not affected by hostilities.

2,016 respondents aged 18 and older were surveyed. The theoretical sampling error does not exceed 2.3%. However, additional systematic deviations in the sample may be due to the consequences of Russian aggression, including the forced evacuation of millions of citizens.