Ukraine can export 26 million tons of wheat without affecting its domestic market

The wheat harvest in Ukraine in the 2021/2022 marketing year amounted to 33.1 million tons, which is 31% more than last year and is an absolute record for the country. By the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA).

As noted, the previous wheat harvest record was set in the 2019/2020 season with an indicator of 28.2 million tons.

“In the current conditions with a record harvest and high prices for wheat on the world market, Ukrainian agrarians can export 26 million tons of wheat to foreign markets this season without any risks to the country’s food security. For example, in the conditions of the previous record harvest, Ukraine exported just over 20.5 million tons out of the 28.2 million tons grown,” analysts said.

The export of surplus wheat is a condition for Ukrainian farmers to receive a high guaranteed income, the UGA explains since the domestic market is not able to consume more than 8 million tons of wheat, of which only 3.5 million tons are needed for the production of bread and other flour-grinding products.

“And this season we still have increased transitional stocks of wheat from last season – about 4 million tons. Consequently, the export of surplus wheat will allow Ukrainian farmers to receive a high income in favourable world market conditions,” experts say.

The UGA clarified that discussing the annual memorandum on the maximum volumes of wheat exports between market participants and the relevant ministry is underway.

“Market participants and experts are convinced that it is necessary to allow Ukrainian farmers to sell surplus wheat in a favourable price situation on the world market. Suppose we increase the balance of wheat for domestic consumption. In that case, it means that the agrarian will not be able to sell it, because the domestic market will not physically be able to consume this surplus. Ukrainian agrarians will receive less income, and next year they will decide to sow another crop instead of wheat,” said in the message.

UGA is convinced that the record harvest and increased transitional stocks of last year’s wheat will both provide domestic consumers and maintain Ukraine’s reputation as a reliable food supplier in the world market.