Ukraine currently has 22 million tonnes of oilseed processing capacity, and with new plants under construction, that number could soon reach 25 million tonnes. However, supplying that capacity with enough raw materials will be difficult, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotskyi said.
“We currently have, according to estimates, up to 22 million tonnes of capacity (OEP – IF-U), and (OEP – IF-U) are still being built, so it will be 22–25 million. Frankly, it will be difficult to reach that volume (of supplying processing enterprises with raw materials – IF-U). Purely agronomically, agrotechnologically,” he commented during a Trend&Hedge Club meeting on the adoption by parliament of a decision to introduce export duties on soybeans and rapeseed.
He also said there's limited room to increase rapeseed production significantly. Although Ukraine could return to previous peaks of 4.8–5 million tonnes (as in 2022–2023), consistently reaching 8–10 million tonnes is unlikely, despite the availability of land.
Sunflower yields offer more potential. Ukraine could eventually grow up to 25 million tonnes, but realistically, it may only rise from the current 20.5 million tonnes to 23–25 million tonnes in coming years—assuming favorable conditions.
Vysotskyi noted that the processing industry has expanded beyond what can be supplied with domestic raw materials through at least 2030.
“From a logical point of view, a seller’s market should remain in the country, but the issue of purchasing raw materials for processing should not be this (critical – IF-U),” he concluded.
On July 16, Ukraine’s parliament adopted draft law No. 13134 introducing a 10% export duty on soybeans, rapeseed, and canola, with an annual reduction of 1% until 2030, reaching 5%.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy forecasts the 2025 season’s oilseed output at 20.5 million tonnes: 3 million tonnes of rapeseed, 5.7 million of soybeans, and a potentially reduced sunflower harvest (below 13 million tonnes) due to drought in southern regions.
