The Odessa Journal hosts this interesting European road map for Ukraine written by the Austrian economist Gunther Fehlinger.
Photo: VLADMUZ
Ukraine has taken over the Presidency of the Danube Strategy of the EU at end of October 2021, a first for Ukraine and the first time that a non-EU member chairs an EU institution. That is an excellent step for Ukraine and the EU, hopefully leading to ever closer cooperation between Ukraine and the EU. As the direct way for Ukraine into the EU is blocked by a few western European members, the back door into the EU via Central Europe is the best and indeed the only working way for Ukraine integration into the European Union.
Ukraine has initiated the Lublin Triangle to coordinate work with the northern EU neighbours Poland and Lithuania, that is covering that key region. Ukraine has initiated the Accession Trio with Moldova and Georgia to promote joint EU Accession of the 3 pro-European members parked by EU in the so-called Eastern Partnership leading sadly not to EU Membership. This is all very good but leading not into the EU. So, what to do?
Transform the EU Danube Strategy into EU Danube-Dnieper Strategy
Ukraine should not only chair the EU Danube Strategy but enlarge and reform it. The Danube is not the only big river in Central and Eastern Europe connecting Europe, there is the Dniester and most of all the Dnieper. The Danube Strategy requires anyhow a facelift and adding the Dniester and Dnieper adds much more significance and Poland and Lithuania can join EUSDDR and Ukraine might offer a permanent secretariat for such a more imported European institution, best in Odessa, the hub and heart of Danube, Dnieper and Black Sea. And please invite Georgia to be observer, never leave Georgia behind.
Ukraine, join the Central European Free Trade Agreement
CEFTA was created in 1992 to prepare Poland and Central Europe for the EU. It worked very well. Today, Moldova and 6 Western Balkans are member and preparing for EU accession, at least the Western Balkans and it works today very well. Just Ukraine is not member, nor is Georgia and it is time to get this done. Georgia and Ukraine are DCFTA partners of the EU and so it is very easy to join CEFTA and it will be a further next step towards working within the Central European context.
Ukraine, join the Regional Cooperation Council
After the last war in Europe, the last one before the ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine, the Balkans Wars of 1991 to 1999 the G7, USA and EU have created the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe to coordinate the reconstruction and regional cooperation of the war-torn Balkans. It worked very well and in 2008 it was transferred to regional ownership into a permanent international organisation called Regional Cooperation Council based in Sarajevo. Moldova is part, Ukraine and Georgia are not.
Why is that? In 2008, Ukraine was backsliding towards Russia after the Orange revolution and in 2008 the RCC was created and Kosovo declared independence and the war in Georgia started and the Bucharest summit of NATO ended in stalemate and rejection of Ukraine and Georgia in NATO and many reasons. But fact is, Ukraine and Georgia would benefit from being on board and learn EU accession and regional cooperation in partnership inside the Western Balkans, including Kosovo, Turkey and many EU Member States and very much supported the USA.
Working with the friends of South Eastern Europe, many of them in NATO already would help Ukraine to prepare for the EU and recognising Kosovo will make Ukraine many friends in Washington and Berlin. And Russia can hardly be a worse enemy for Ukraine if Ukraine recognises Kosovo. And even Serbia and Bosnia and Moldova work and sit with Kosovo in RCC and learn to cooperate with each other with USA and EU assistance even when there is no love lost. So, joining RCC, which now works on the so called regional Economic Area a kind of regional internal market working along EU regulation makes much sense for Ukraine to close up with Europe, step by step.
Ukraine, join the Adriatic Charter
No this is not about sailing the Adriatic Sea. It is about NATO. The US Defense Department has a Dialogue forum with the Adriatic States, called Adriatic Charter to support NATO accession and this has led to Croatia, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia to be NATO Allies and Bosnia to be aspirant and Kosovo, who wants to join and learn from observer status in Adriatic Charter. Even pro-Russian Serbia is observer member of Adriatic Charter and why shall Ukraine and Georgia not learn and work with the Allies from the Adriatic Sea?
Ukraine, join the 3 Seas Initiative
Poland and many other friends of Ukraine have established the "3 Seas initiative" but Ukraine is not invited? Why is that? What sense does that make? Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are key for peace and prosperity for Central Europe and should be part of 3 Seas in all aspect. Otherwise 3 Seas make no sense. Ukraine must ask the USA to talk sense to the 3 seas allies.
Ukraine, adopt the Euro
As EU integration is blocked, currency integration is the next best thing. Currency can be decided by nations, no need to ask. The Baltic States and Bulgaria did peg their currencies early onwards and it worked very well to integrate with the EU Internal Market. Ukraine has seen enough devaluation and currently revaluation is bad for exporter and it is time for a fixed peg with the Euro as best do it as Montenegro and Kosovo and adopt the Euro unilateral and so it is very clear: the future of Ukraine is the EU and the Euro is the symbol widely visible to Russia, Ukrainians and all Europeans and everybody treading, working or investing in Ukraine. And it is good economics and it is better to be in the same boat with all Europeans. Let us unite Europe by the Euro, starting with Ukraine, adopting the Euro.
Ukraine, establish the European Odessa Dialogue
Ukraine as a powerful state should not just join Central Europe but lead it. And lead the 3rd wave of European enlargement. The other states are small to medium with only Serbia, sadly pro-Russian with 7 million people medium size, all others from Albania to Georgia, Montenegro to Moldova, Bosnia to North Macedonia are smaller states, only Ukraine is a large European state, double of Romania, about the same as Poland and Spain. So Ukraine shall lead the group not just join so Ukraine needs to establish the European Odessa Dialogue, organising and promoting and brainstorming for a united European of 37 Member States. 37 meaning: 27 plus 6 Western Balkans plus Accession Trio plus UK, if it might reconsider and it shall always be welcome. So, we are 37 in a hopefully not so distant future. A EU of 37 will be different than a EU of 27 and this must be discussed. The 9 pro European must be organised and the EU must be convinced and opened up. So, Ukraine must organise such a dialogue and such a new international organisation must be set up.
The European Odessa Dialogue Forum organising the 9 countries and making sure the EU is ready for 37 and the 9 new members are ready for the EU. And what better location and symbol and meeting place than Odessa, the hub and heart of the Black Sea, the Danube and Dnipro region, port for Ukraine and Georgia, gate to world and European metropolis in the making. Such a new international organisation will give Odessa a new role and support its identity of hub and heart of European Ukraine and so it is time for the European Odessa Dialogue Forum.
The author
Mag. Gunther Fehlinger is an Austrian Economist from Linz, Chairman of European for Tax Reform, Coordinator Austrian Committee for European Ukraine. He worked as Secretary General of SME Union Europe and as European SME Policy Adviser in Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Ukraine.
- Twitter: @GunterFehlinger
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fehlinger/
