According to preliminary estimates, in 2024, Ukrainian farmers harvested around 54.7 million tons of various types of cereals, which is 8.5% less than the previous period. If we break it down by major crops, about 21.8 million tons of wheat were harvested (-2.0% compared to last year), 25.8 million tons of corn (-19.4%), and 5.3 million tons of barley (+0.7%), reports Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
This year, negative weather conditions (high air and soil temperatures, insufficient moisture) had an impact, especially on corn, with its yield decreasing by 18%.
This year, for the first time since the beginning of Russian aggression in Ukraine, Ukrainian farmers are selling the harvested crops based on market conditions, not just the physical ability to export. As of the first decade of January, 69% of barley intended for export, 63% of wheat, and 48% of corn have already been exported.
Since the beginning of the war, prices on the Ukrainian market were significantly lower compared to global prices due to expensive logistics and the inability to export. However, in 2024, prices slightly balanced due to the functioning of Ukraine’s own grain corridor, provided by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In December 2024, Ukraine exported 5.5 million tons of agricultural products, 11.1% less than the same month the previous year. This is the second consecutive month of export reductions in this category. It is perhaps the first time during the war that the reduction is due not to logistical constraints created by the Russian army but rather to the current market situation, declining food stocks for export, and Ukrainian farmers’ desire to sell their products at a more favorable time.
Oilseed crops showed the largest percentage reduction (-28% compared to November 2024), mainly due to a significant depletion of rapeseed stocks intended for export and a slowdown in soy exports due to its low current price, especially compared to last year.
The export of vegetable oils also decreased significantly. Due to a noticeable rise in sunflower seed prices, some farmers are hesitant to sell their harvested crops, leading to a reduction in sunflower oil production and, consequently, exports. It is worth noting that this phenomenon is temporary.
The same trend is seen with grain exports. The price of corn, which now occupies the majority of grain exports, shows positive dynamics on the Ukrainian market, and some farmers are waiting for a more favorable time to export their entire harvest. Combined with the decline in wheat export rates, this has led to a reduction in overall grain exports.
In 2024, the top 10 grain exporters accounted for 73% of total grain exports in their natural form.
The ranking is as follows: Spain (22% of total grain exports), Egypt (10%), China (9%), Turkey (8%), Italy (7%), the Netherlands (5%), Indonesia (5%), Tunisia (3%), Vietnam (3%), and Israel (3%).
In January 2025, prices for all types of grain rose compared to the same period last year. Currently, the price of wheat at elevators in central Ukraine is around 193 USD/ton (+73 USD/ton year-on-year), corn – 177 USD/ton (+63 USD/ton), and barley – 166 USD/ton (+87 USD/ton).
For the first time during the war, there is a profit from growing all types of grain. Previously, corn and barley were either unprofitable or minimally profitable. However, this does not apply to all farms. Some enterprises in southern and eastern Ukraine faced extremely low yields due to unfavorable weather conditions. Unfortunately, in such cases, there can be no talk of profitability in grain cultivation.
According to preliminary estimates, the main changes in the structure of sown areas will be as follows:
- A decrease in soybean sowing areas or a return to previous levels. In 2022 and 2023, due to favorable global conditions, soybeans were nearly the only crop bringing profit. Therefore, in 2024, soybean sowing areas reached their maximum. This year, the situation has changed, as soybean prices on the global market have significantly decreased, leading to a reduction in sowing areas next year;
- A decrease in rapeseed sowing areas. Unfortunately, the weather conditions during the autumn sowing for the 2025 harvest were not very favorable, with a prolonged dry spell and soil being over-dried. This resulted in a reduction in rapeseed sowing areas;
- An increase in maize sowing areas, as trade in this crop has resumed. Given the high yield, transporting such large volumes was incredibly difficult under limited logistics. Now, thanks to the uninterrupted operation of Odessa ports, exporting maize has become easier.
In recent months, around 300-400 thousand tons of agricultural products have been exported through the Danube river ports, and 500-600 thousand tons via western borders by road and rail. Meanwhile, through Odessa ports, 4-5 million tons have been exported. Currently, alternative export routes are used either for countries located nearby or for specific categories of goods. The main reason is the cost of logistics. Therefore, sea export remains the optimal option, and there are no significant grounds for increasing exports through alternative routes for the time being.
