Is it realistic that 2023 will be a year of victory for Ukraine, or will the war drag on? Russian-American historian Yuri Felshtinsky gave his answers in an interview with Unian.
'We must first define what victory is. For example, from the point of view of Europe, America. Since February 24, everyone has had the same task - to stop this war, how. And if Eastern Europe supported Ukraine from the first day, Western Europe did not care what conditions the war would end - even if Ukraine capitulated, as long as no one touched them.
At first, everyone thought, they say, well, now they will seize Ukraine in a week, well, there's nothing to be done, it's not to start a war because of this. But a week passed, a second, and a month passed. It turned out that Ukraine did not capitulate; secondly, the Russian army was not fighting as well as everyone assumed.
Here everyone perked up and began to help Ukraine, trying to resolve the issue through negotiations. It was impossible to stop the war through negotiations, because Putin needed all of Ukraine and did not want less. But in fact, he also wants Moldova and many, many other things.
The third stage began when everyone understood that the war could be stopped in only one way: through the surrender of the Russian Federation. Now we need to think about how this war should take place for this to happen as a result. What are the options for achieving victory, and what kind of plans does anyone have on this topic?
I have a plan. Although now it seems that he is too frivolous, in the end everything will develop according to this plan, I guarantee you.
In fact, the defeat of the Russian Federation will begin with the liberation of Belarus. Now you can look at it with surprise, but believe me, this is what will happen.
The Belarusian direction is the easiest to defeat Russia. The original goal was to use Belarus as a springboard for an offensive against Eastern Europe, including Ukraine. And with the loss of Belarus, the whole point of Putin's military campaign is lost. After that, Russian troops will leave Crimea and Donbas alone; fighting for them will be pointless. Belarus is liberated, Lukashenka flies off, and the "government in exile" enters Minsk, which had already been formed long ago. And Russian aggression against Ukraine ends.
This is the easiest and cheapest option. Fewer people will die. At the same time, the war has been going on in the Donbas for 9 years, and there is no progress in military operations there, and there will not be for a long time. This is a positional war, and Russia is interested in it - unlike Ukraine, it does not care how much it puts its soldiers there. Therefore, it is not profitable for Ukraine to conduct a positional war.
And how exactly Belarus will be liberated... When Putin entered Crimea, he said it was not the Russian army but "little green men". And why, in fact, "little green men" cannot liberate Belarus from Russian troops?
Lukashenka made a loud statement a few days ago, saying that if at least one Ukrainian soldier crosses the border of Belarus, it will enter the war. Firstly, Belarus has already entered the war. We will not deceive anyone. It's just that Lukashenka takes care of his soldiers. Firstly, he has very few of them, and secondly, they will sweep him away as soon as he gives them the order to cross the border of Ukraine.
But Ukrainian soldiers will not cross the border of Belarus. Soldiers of the Belarusian regiment named after Kastus Kalinovsky can cross it. And we will see what will happen to Lukashenka. Because if he had not been mortally afraid of this, he would not have said this phrase now.
From Crimea, Russia will be evacuated, hastily blowing its feet. As soon as the Crimean bridge is demolished and missile attacks on military targets begin. This question can be solved with the help of the long-range missiles that Ukraine will receive. Yes, the allies will take some time - they are slow, think long, and are afraid of everything. But since there are no other ways to end this war, and there won't be, they will give Ukraine F-16s and long-range missiles. Everyone will give."
