Alexander Kovalenko: And February 24 is a dangerous date, not so much for Ukraine as for… Moldova
Aleksander Kovalenko, a military observer, spoke on how the Republic of Moldova can get rid of Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic with the proper sequence of steps.
“Firstly, if we talk about the Kremlin’s plans for Moldova, then if they include only a clash with the Moldovan army and law enforcement forces, of course, they have every chance of successfully implementing this, no longer a hybrid project. But if the clashes are not limited only to the army of Moldova?”
The expert believes that the Kremlin has serious concerns that if its hybrids start to become active in Moldova, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not stand aside, and this is up to 2-3 weeks of a complete cleansing of Transnistria for those forces that are now concentrated in the Odessa region.
“And February 24 is a dangerous date not so much for Ukraine as for… Moldova”
Kovalenko noted that, after all, by increasing activity along the front line, Russia can divert the attention and resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Moldova. Although, Transnistria played an opposite role throughout 2022 – fettering the resource with a potential threat to the Odessa region from Transnistria.
“Secondly, in Transnistria, the mood is not at all belligerent and it is possible to trace the lack of desire to go into a “bloody battle” against Chisinau and, moreover, understanding the risks of the participation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the side of Moldova and the prospects for this, without much difficulty. And therefore, the motivation is so-so …
Of course, Putin did not just defiantly cancel his own decree. This is a signal that Russia will act in relation to Moldova. It will happen on February 24, or May 9, or June 22, it is not so important. The important thing is that with the proper sequence of steps, Moldova can get rid of Transnistria (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic).
Can Russia risk its three home-grown battalions, counting only on the ammunition depot in Cobasna? Don’t forget that we are now talking about the driven rat, which is naturally in a state of being driven to rush in a suicidal impulse.”