In Ukraine, more than 14.7 million tons of wheat have been harvested from 3.5 million hectares, with contracts already secured not only for August but also for September. Prices are rising, according to the analytical cooperative PUSK, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agricultural Council.
"On the CPT (Cost and Freight) markets, wheat prices are increasing by $5-6 per ton, while on CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) markets, the rise is only $1. Prices on CIF markets usually rise first, so this situation indicates problems for traders in covering contracts. Therefore, traders are encouraging farmers with higher prices," the analysts noted.
Experts predict that this local imbalance could last about two weeks. In the seaports of Odessa, indicative wheat prices for the coming week are expected to range between $175-189 per ton on a CPT basis, and $205-215 per ton on CIF Constanta terms.
For those not planning to sell wheat in the near future, analysts advise not to pay too much attention to current fluctuations, as July is a volatile month for the grain market.
In the long term, wheat prices are expected to rise, according to experts. A significant factor supporting the upward price movement is the global decline in grain production.
"European grain markets are showing instability. The EU is expected to reduce wheat production by 10 million tons, Russia by 10 million tons, and Ukraine by 3-4 million tons. Only the US is forecasting an increase in production by 4 million tons, which will not offset the declines in the EU and Russia. Therefore, global prices are likely to rise amid reduced production," explained PUSK.
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