Military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen from the Danish Royal Defense College has released a new video discussing the situation regarding security guarantees for Ukraine.
Here’s a summary of the key points:
Zelensky's "Victory Plan": The plan received a lukewarm response in the West, with many politicians and media outlets paying little attention to it. This highlights a gap between Ukraine's objectives and how the West envisions the end of the war, making it increasingly difficult to hide behind a façade. The two main points of contention between Ukraine and the West are territorial issues and security guarantees. Western politicians believe Ukraine will have to make compromises on both fronts.
Ukrainian Rhetoric: Ukrainian politicians have indicated that the war may end without the complete de-occupation of all territories, a point not addressed in Zelensky's "Victory Plan." However, they take the issue of post-war guarantees very seriously, as the entire plan revolves around this topic. Many Western politicians would be content with a status quo that grants Ukraine the same guarantees it had in 2022.
Types of Deterrence: Military theory identifies two forms of deterrence. The first involves having powerful armed forces to prevent an enemy from achieving its goals in war. Ukraine pursued this path before 2022, successfully building a military capable of thwarting Russian ambitions. However, this type of deterrence was insufficient to prevent further conflict. Therefore, Ukrainians are increasingly considering a second form: deterrence by punishment, which entails strong retaliatory strikes that force the enemy to pay a steep price for aggression. In today's context, this implies the necessity of nuclear weapons.
Path to Nuclear Capability: Ukraine could achieve this in two ways: either by falling under NATO's "nuclear umbrella" or by developing its own nuclear weapons. Although nuclear weapons were not included in Zelensky's plan, he hinted at it in a conversation with Trump, indicating that this issue is on the agenda if the West fails to provide other guarantees.
Global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Concerns: This approach contradicts global nuclear non-proliferation policies, likely prompting other countries to seek their own nuclear capabilities, following Ukraine's example. Thus, the "Victory Plan" also serves as a strategy to prevent nuclear proliferation worldwide by providing Ukraine with guarantees.
Misunderstandings about the "Victory Plan": Many mistakenly believe the "Victory Plan" is a wishlist with elements that can be prioritized or ignored. In reality, all actions must be executed in a specific order. The first step is reaching a consensus on Ukraine's NATO membership. Following that, pressure will be necessary to convince Russia to accept Ukraine's membership in the Alliance, a demand unacceptable to Russia that will require military methods for enforcement. Next is a vaguely worded point concerning military deterrence against Russia until Ukraine joins NATO, which likely implies a NATO military presence in Ukraine. The subsequent point addresses support for the Ukrainian economy. The last point involves Ukraine's positive role in the future security architecture of Europe.
Realism in Ending the War: There is a growing sentiment in the West that Ukraine should be "more realistic" about how the war will end. However, the reality is the opposite: if the war is to end, NATO countries must do much more to achieve genuine peace. Additionally, the West must remember that Ukraine has its own will on the political map and will not agree to a peace that offers it nothing.
Mutual Dependence: While Ukraine relies on Western arms supplies, the West is also dependent on Ukraine, as a Russian victory would be a nightmare for the security of many European nations. Therefore, for the West, abandoning Ukraine is not an option, giving Ukraine significant leverage in diplomatic negotiations.
