Russian forces, according to the OSINT project DeepState, have reached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka (Donetsk region) from multiple directions and are actively pressing and infiltrating deeper into the settlement, while also turning the city into a total ruin.
“The situation around Kostiantynivka is developing in the worst-case scenario, as the Russian forces has effectively reached the outskirts of the city from all sides and is carrying out active pressure and penetrating deep into the settlement,” the OSINT analysts said in a Telegram post on Tuesday.
According to the project, there have been sightings of Russian infantry from the eastern part of Kostiantynivka through Novodmytrivka, as well as constant activity from the directions of Berestok and Illinivka.
“Having reached the necessary positions, the Russian forces are gradually transitioning to a prolonged ‘absorption’ of the city, where a scenario similar to Pokrovsk is partially emerging. In particular, mistakes are being repeated with attempts at chaotic clearing operations, while the enemy has room to advance and changes its positions as needed. In communication with soldiers, they note a large number of Russian infantry, disproportionate to the available resources of the Ukrainian Defence Forces,” the message states.
According to the project, the Russian forces are trying to reach a chokepoint in the northern part of Kostiantynivka in order to cut off the entire central and southern parts from normal supply.
“The enemy can achieve this in the simplest way — by physically advancing infantry into this area and, as in Pokrovsk, setting up ambushes and coordinating drone operators for fire control. At the same time, the enemy is leveling the settlement to the ground, turning it into complete ruins that will soon be impossible to hold. The Russians’ rush for success forces them to produce AI-generated videos claiming the capture of the city or its districts. Reaching the required positions, which they believe would enable such success, further pushes them into active assaults with heavy losses,” the post added.
However, it is noted that Russian forces “do not value their personnel, so such tactics are normal for them and not a reason for celebration. In Pokrovsk they also lost a large number of infantry, as repeatedly noted in Ukrainian information space, but in the end they captured Pokrovsk, while we also suffered significant losses.”
According to the OSINT analysts, Kostiantynivka is a “gateway” to the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration.
“When Kostiantynivka falls (and it is only a matter of time), Druzhkivka will be next, which currently plays a crucial logistical role, followed by Kramatorsk. Once Kostiantynivka comes under enemy control, logistics for the Ukrainian Defence Forces in this area will change drastically, creating additional difficulties for any movement, and even being in Kramatorsk will become extremely dangerous, where enemy drone operators will already be active.”
Further, it is stated that the Russians will need to open another “gateway” to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
“If earlier this was Lyman, where active pressure is currently ongoing, they may now attempt to do so further south along the sector from Mykolaivka to Malynivka, pushing through brigades that are experiencing issues, particularly with manpower, as unfortunately the priority for reinforcements is still assault units,” the report says.
“The battle for Kostiantynivka continues…,” DeepState concluded.
