As of September 22, Ukraine had exported nearly 1.7 million tons of wheat. Currently, contract coverage on the market is sufficient, which is partly limiting price growth. However, the situation could change starting in October.
This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the Ukrainian Agri Council framework.
“The indicative price for third-class wheat remains at $212–214 CPT per port. This is due to ample stocks held by traders and strong global supply, especially from Russia,” analysts noted.
However, contract coverage for November–December wheat is significantly decreasing for many market players.
“October contracts are already being concluded at $218–220 CPT per port, with potential growth up to $223. The main reason is declining stocks and growing uncertainty about the next harvest,” PUSK reported.
Climate risks in major wheat-producing countries are expected to be the main factor supporting prices.
“In Ukraine, central and southern regions are suffering from drought, and significant rainfall is not expected soon. Russia is also experiencing a critical moisture deficit, and sowing rates are the slowest in the last five years. Similar conditions are observed in France, Romania, and Bulgaria, where lack of moisture threatens winter wheat sowing volumes. As a result, the area sown may decrease. Importers, anticipating potential 2026 harvest problems, may increase grain purchases. Therefore, wheat prices could rise significantly in January–March,” analysts conclude
