Trump stated that he does not believe there was an attack on Putin’s residence. Apparently, as soon as he heard about it, he was concerned—but after checking, nothing had happened. In other words, Putin lied once again, trying to play games with Trump.
I think there will still be consequences in this regard.
But there is another interesting aspect.
After Lavrov’s statement, Russian embassies in host countries were tasked with organizing a campaign condemning the supposed threat to Putin’s person. As a result, some leaders in Central Asia performed acts of unnecessary servility.
By the time they issued their public statements, there was already enough evidence that Russia was lying.
The presidents of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan were called for a phone conversation with Putin. On the Kremlin website, there are two-paragraph reports of these calls. Russia presented it as though the leaders of these countries had voluntarily called Putin to “express decisive condemnation of the reckless act of the Kyiv regime.”
On the official websites of Tokayev, Mirziyoyev, and Rahmon, the narrative is slightly different. First, it does not specify who allegedly attacked the residence. Second, Mirziyoyev condemned the incident most strongly, Rahmon more mildly, and Tokayev moved the condemnation to the fourth paragraph, after ritualistic mentions of bilateral relations.
Kyrgyzstan acted differently. Presidential Press Secretary Askat Alagozov posted on Facebook (banned in Russia): “…Sadyr Japarov expressed extreme concern about reports of an attack on the state residence…” — so extreme that he didn’t feel the need to get personally involved. On the Kyrgyz president’s website, there is no mention of regrets regarding the Valdai meeting.
Turkmenistan kept even more distance. The Berdymukhamedovs remained silent personally, with only the Foreign Ministry commenting: “We are concerned about the reports and condemn such actions, yes.”
The underlying pattern is clear. By pressuring leaders to publicly lie, Russia consciously turns Central Asia into a “Middle” region.
All this occurs against a backdrop of horrific events that should push Central Asian leaders to be selective in their compliance with the Kremlin.
After the New Year (January 2), Uzbekistan officially responded to an anti-migrant raid in Khabarovsk on December 12, during which nationals from the country were beaten—one person died from the assault. He was simply beaten to death by “law enforcement.”
On the same day, dozens of Kyrgyz workers were beaten in a local transport depot. On December 16, in a Moscow-region school, a 15-year-old boy, influenced by anti-humanitarian ideas (whose views had been publicly known, but neither the FSB nor police intervened), stabbed a 10-year-old Tajik, Kobilzhon Aliev. Putin offered condolences to Rahmon at the Hermitage.
However, there are no words sufficient to describe the rampage of outright Nazism in Russian online communities, where people openly mocked the killing of the child. Furthermore, Tajiks protesting the incident were detained for “inciting interethnic hatred,” while Russian media pundits blamed the “corrupting influence of the West.”
Kazakhstan’s case is different. At the end of the year, Putin “shook off the dust” from former leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, publicly dining with him in the Kremlin. Nazarbayev’s positions had been fully undermined during the events of 2022 (the 4th anniversary of Qañtar is coming up). Putin not only ensured support for Tokayev but also “bound him by blood.” Meanwhile, Moscow regularly hints to the Kazakh president that a replacement could always be found.
The leadership of Kazakhstan has recently faced criticism for persecuting dissenting journalists and publicists, tightening the regime, and copying Russian decisions. It seems preparations are underway for tightening control during the announced constitutional reform and the “power transition.”
In a recent interview, Tokayev said it was too early to talk about the “transition.” That means now is precisely the time.
Astana surely understands that during sensitive changes, Russia will try to weaken and strike. Flattering Putin with lies will not help—the leaders of Kazakhstan will only become more entangled.
