The Ministry of National Defense of Lithuania has presented a draft of the updated National Security Strategy for 2026, noting a sharp deterioration in the security environment in Europe. The document identifies Russia as an existential threat to Lithuania and the entire transatlantic community and outlines a scenario in which Moscow could be ready for large-scale combat operations against NATO by 2030.
The strategy outlines three key policy directions: the armed defense of the state; support for the country’s defense and overall resilience; and the shaping of the international security environment in line with Lithuania’s interests. Vilnius reaffirms its political commitment to fund defense at a level of at least 5–6% of GDP by 2030, significantly exceeding NATO’s baseline requirements.
National security priorities include the development of the armed forces and the strengthening of national resilience. This involves expanding intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, countering hybrid threats, improving export control and regulation of dual-use goods, diversifying foreign trade, and enhancing energy security. The strategy also emphasizes the need to develop an international security system based on international law and effective mechanisms for collective and European defense.
The main external risk sources are identified as Russia, as the primary military threat; Belarus, as an unpredictable factor due to its dependence on Moscow; and China and other states that support Russia’s long-term ability to resist the West, including through the supply of technologies and dual-use goods.
Lithuania explicitly links its own security to the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war, stressing that European security is impossible without an independent, sovereign, and secure Ukraine integrated into the Euro-Atlantic space. The strategy provides for an annual allocation of at least 0.25% of GDP to support Ukraine in the security and defense sector, continued training of Ukrainian military personnel, and comprehensive support for Kyiv.
Formalizing this support as a long-term element of national security creates a predictable level of assistance for Ukraine. At the same time, the focus on regional formats—the Nordic-Baltic Eight and the Northern Group—signals Vilnius’ intention to strengthen security through “small coalitions” as a complement to NATO.
