In January–February 2025, Russia's trade surplus grew to $18.5 billion. The goods surplus amounted to $11.4 billion (+$4.3 billion in one month). Meanwhile, there remains a negative trade balance in services, with a downward trend (-$1.1 billion in one month).
This was reported by the Ukrainina Foreigh Inteligence Service.
The reasons for the growth of Russia's positive trade balance include:
- Issues with payment for imports;
- A number of Chinese transport companies refusing to ship dual-use goods to Russia following the Chinese government's export restrictions imposed in December 2024;
- A transportation collapse on Russia's railways due to congestion on the eastern route;
- The Russian Central Bank's tight monetary policy;
- Strengthening of the ruble against the US dollar.
In Russia's case, a positive trade balance does not indicate "economic recovery." The surplus in foreign trade operations highlights the effectiveness of Western sanctions and the lack of foreign companies' intentions to invest in Russia's foreign trade activities. In the long term, import restrictions will lead to reduced competitiveness for Russian entrepreneurs and a decrease in employment levels.
