Kupiansk Direction
The enemy continues its attempts to significantly expand its tactical foothold north of the city, near Dvorichna and Novomlynske, aiming to elevate it to an operational level. To this end, the command has deployed the 69th Motorized Rifle Division (MSD) of the 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA). However, these efforts are proving difficult. After a week of relentless attacks, the enemy has only advanced by about 1 km on the northern side of the foothold, between their previously captured Figolevka and Novomlynske (Oskol).
Additionally, the enemy has been unable to fully secure Dvorichna or completely take control of Zapadne village, despite nearly two weeks of continuous attacks. It is evident that the Ukrainian forces in this area are significantly outmatched in terms of strength and resources.
To the south of the city, near the village of Kruhlyakivka, where the enemy also advanced to the Oskil River, their efforts to expand their "breakthrough corridor" have been unsuccessful. Despite constant attacks from the 2nd MSD (1st Tank Army) in the corridor and active actions by the 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the same army to the south, no progress has been made.
Thus, we can confirm that the enemy's Northern and Western groupings are still far from achieving their immediate objectives on this shared flank, particularly securing favorable starting positions for an operation to capture Kupiansk. However, the presence of the enemy's foothold to the north of the city raises significant concerns.
Lyman Direction
The main focus of the left (southern) flank of the Western Group of Forces (GV "West") is currently concentrated on the 20th Army's offensive line. Using the 3rd and 144th Motorized Rifle Divisions, they have secured tactical footholds on the Black Zherebets River near the villages of Makiyivka and Ivanivka. Additionally, they are attempting to break through the Ukrainian defenses on the eastern bank of the river, launching intense attacks towards Terny and Yampolivka from north to south.
Over the past five days, the enemy has expanded their foothold slightly (200-250 meters) in the area between Makiyivka and Grekivka, likely using the 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd MSD. Their other efforts towards Kolodyazy and Yampolivka have so far been unsuccessful.
Units from the 25th Army of the GV "West" appear to be tying down our forces defending the eastern bank of the Black Zherebets, as well as near the Serebryansk Forestry. Their goal is likely to prevent maneuvering by Ukrainian forces and reserves along the river. However, if the foothold expands, the 25th Army will undoubtedly intensify its efforts.
In the broader context, the 20th Army is likely aiming to break through to Drobysheve and reach the Piski Radkivski - Lozove line along the Oskol River. This becomes more apparent when considering the overall situation in the Siversk area and the enemy's intentions to break through to Konstantinovka along the Kramatorsk and Toretsk directions.
Siversk Direction
In this area, within the 3rd Army's operational zone, the enemy made several unsuccessful attempts to advance northwest along the railway near the village of Vyyimka. These attempts, like previous ones, were ineffective.
This situation on the Siversk direction is understandable. It seems that the enemy command, including the command of the Southern Group of Forces (GV "South"), to which the 3rd Army belongs, is focusing their efforts not here, but on the flanks of the Siversk salient (foothold) of Ukrainian forces. Specifically, on the Kramatorsk and Lyman directions (GV "West"). Meanwhile, the 3rd Army is mainly tying down Ukrainian forces defending the Siversk salient from the front (east and southeast) with occasional bursts of activity in areas like Bilohorivka (upper), Verkhnekam'yanske, Vyyimka, and Pereizne.
Kramatorsk Direction
The enemy’s main efforts are focused around Chasiv Yar and its north and south areas. A combined tactical group, including units from the 4th, 200th, and 85th brigades, as well as airborne regiments, aims to seize the city and advance towards the approaches to Kostiantynivka from the north and northeast.
Despite intense fighting, with significant artillery support, the enemy has not made progress since February 18. While they have captured parts of Chasiv Yar, including “Pivnychnyi” and “Novopivnychnyi,” they have not been able to advance southward towards Pokrovsk or the village of Stupochky. The city remains contested, and the enemy continues frontal assaults on its ruins.
To the south, Ukrainian forces have retreated to the Siversky Donets–Donbas Canal but maintain positions near Toretsk, effectively holding back enemy advances. To the north, intense battles are ongoing around the village of Hryhorivka, where the enemy has failed to make headway even after two months.
The enemy’s strategy is clear: advance to key positions near Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka for a potential assault. However, their slow progress and heavy losses in Chasiv Yar suggest that they may struggle to break through. The 3rd Army, along with its reinforcements, has not achieved significant results, and their current pace of advancement raises doubts about their ability to succeed.
Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka Directions
We’ve covered these areas recently and have been analyzing them for the past three weeks, so I’ll skip detailed discussion and move on to the enemy’s "Vostok" grouping, which includes the Velykomykhailivka and Orikhiv directions. A brief summary of the previous areas:
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On the Toretsk front, the 8th Army has not launched an offensive yet, still concentrating and preparing. The 51st Army, meanwhile, has been unable to achieve significant results over the past 3-5 days. Their brigades are spread across various directions and units are being deployed in smaller groups, which is a good sign for us.
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In Pokrovsk, fierce counterattacks continue, with both sides suffering losses. The command of the 41st and 2nd Armies still refuses to acknowledge the halt in their offensive, leading to greater casualties. Some of their brigades and regiments, such as the 55th, 74th, and 87th, have lost 30-50% of their personnel.
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In the Novopavlivka direction, a mix of the 90th Tank Division, separate motorized brigades from the 51st Army, and units from the 29th and 68th Armies, along with the 57th Brigade from the 5th Army, have pushed our forward units out of the Kuryakhivka salient. The Ukrainian forces have retreated to the Konstytupol–Rozlyv line and are attempting to halt enemy progress west of Andriivka.
Velykomykhailivka Direction
The 5th and 36th Armies of the enemy have reportedly reached the Novosilka–Novocheretuvate line, a significant tactical success for the Russian command by current standards. The "Vostok" group seems to be operating along two main axes, moving northwest along the west and east banks of the Mokri Yaly River:
- The 5th Army (mainly the 127th Motorized Infantry Division + 34th Motorized Infantry Brigade) is attempting to break through towards the Shevchenko–Burlatske–Pryvilne–Vilne Pole area.
- The 36th Army (37th Motorized Infantry Brigade + 5th Airborne Brigade), reinforced by two Marine Corps brigades (40th and 336th), is advancing along the right (eastern) bank towards Novocheretuvate–Dniproenerhiya, heading towards Komar village.
The 60th Motorized Infantry Brigade and part of the 5th Airborne Brigade seem to be held in reserve by the command for potential further engagement, possibly near Rozdolne–Bohatyr or towards Komar.
Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia) Direction
On this front, the enemy periodically attacks south of the road to Novodanilivka, from the Novofedivka and Robotyne areas. The main goal is to improve the tactical position of Russian forces and, potentially, set the stage for an assault on Orikhiv in the future. Small assault units (up to a platoon) from various parts of the 58th Army and 7th Air Assault Division are engaged here, though their attacks lack the intensity and scale seen in other directions, such as near Pokrovsk. Occasionally, they cause minor disruptions for Ukrainian defenders.
To summarize.
As we can see, at present, on several operational fronts, including those considered "main" for the so-called "strategic offensive" of the enemy, their attacking and storming actions, although still ongoing, have significantly slowed down, both in pace and effectiveness. Essentially, it has come down to isolated battles for "half a clearing," a couple of broken huts in a hamlet, or 2-3 skeletons of former high-rise buildings.
It is clear that Russian forces CAN NO LONGER attack or storm with the required scale, intensity, and, most importantly, effectiveness, on almost all fronts. They initially had to concentrate on three, then on one or two, and now it is gradually narrowing down to "some" single direction.
They are still "crawling" in the southeastern "corner" of the front and are even now trying to "galvanize" something around Konstantynivka, but it's becoming slower and slower...
