Main image: People cross the Medyka border crossing from Ukraine to Poland. | © Tom Nicholson / HI
High security risks, constant shelling and destruction, and ongoing electricity shortages are negatively affecting the quality of life for Ukrainians. This leads to continued external migration.
This is reported by the National Bank of Ukraine (January 2025).
"Throughout 2024, the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued, amounting to approximately 0.5 million people, which aligned with the NBU's estimates," the review states.
The NBU notes that this gives no reason to change assumptions about the future migration dynamics. In 2025, a continued net outflow of external migrants is expected (around 0.2 million people), but starting in 2026, a net return of migrants to Ukraine is anticipated (around 0.2 million people), which will accelerate in 2027 (around 0.5 million people).
According to the NBU, there is a decrease in the proportion of those who wish to return due to further adaptation of Ukrainians abroad.
"Therefore, a mass and rapid return of migrants under the current conditions seems unlikely, resulting in a continued labor force shortage during the forecast period," the document states. If these trends continue, the labor market situation will worsen, and domestic consumer demand may shrink.
"At the same time, changes in the policies of recipient countries regarding Ukrainian migrants and proactive policies by the Ukrainian government to encourage migrants to return home could stimulate migration flows. It would also be spurred by a rapid reduction in security risks in Ukraine. In this case, the labor shortage would decrease, consumer demand would recover faster, while short-term unemployment risks could also rise," the report concludes.
