Russian media have been pushing the same headline for a couple of hours: “Moldova’s opposition wins the elections.” Presumably, Maia Sandu lost.
As of early morning, all parties except PAS had collectively gathered over 50% of the votes.
What is left unsaid is that even at that point, Sandu’s party was vying for a parliamentary majority on its own. Now, they will emphasize that the diaspora vote tipped the balance.
Experts on Moldova I have seen are nearly unanimous: no one expected this result. Hence, a mild euphoria.
What happens next?
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Protect the votes. Russia feels obliged to show something.
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First, this is the second regional defeat—after Romania. Combined with setbacks in the Caucasus, this is especially problematic.
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Second, formally, this result is no longer the responsibility of Mr. Kozak, but of Mr. Kirienko. Starting with such a humiliating fiasco is hardly respectable.
They may try to provoke incidents to suspend results or at least blur the picture, in order to later undermine the authorities.
If Russia shows nothing, Mr. Kirienko will look very weak.
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Repeat: Sandu’s European course and rhetoric must be tested on the “PMR” (Transnistria). Failure to take effective action to address this hotspot contradicts the interests of both Ukraine and Moldova. There are no reasonable excuses left.
