Recently, there has been active circulation of information suggesting that Putin not only has not abandoned the idea of occupying Odessa but is also determined to carry it out.
Several foreign media outlets, citing alleged insiders and unnamed trustworthy sources, have published materials claiming that Putin intends to seize Odessa by force or to secure territorial concessions from Donald Trump within the framework of a "ceasefire" that would involve surrendering the city to Russia.
Among the distributors of such narratives are both relatively respectable publications, such as Corriere Della Sera, which published a piece stating that if Ukraine rejects peace agreements, Russia will proceed to Odessa, and cheap tabloid press like L'AntiDiplomatico, which reported that the main goal of the “special military operation” is Odessa. If it’s handed over, everything will be resolved immediately…
It is true that Odessa has always been a tempting target for Putin, but since 2022, Russian occupation forces have not moved an inch closer to achieving this goal, but rather, the situation has developed in the opposite direction. However, the regular terror attacks on the city using kamikaze drones give rise to the thought, especially among those prone to panic attacks, that such a plan is indeed being implemented right now.
In reality – no.
Russian occupying forces have no chance of occupying Odessa under the current conditions. They simply lack the necessary forces and resources for such an offensive campaign. In fact, I’m surprised that anyone, with a serious face, is trying to convince others that Odessa will be occupied while Russian troops have been unable to capture Chasiv Yar for a year and a half, have been unsuccessfully attacking Toretsk for nine months, and after a year and a half of the Avdiivka offensive, have advanced only 35 kilometers in Donetsk region since October 2024, without even starting to fight for Pokrovsk.
How can the enemy and their “expert” supporters talk about Odessa, predicting the inevitability of an assault and capture of the city, when the Russian "Dnepr" group of forces, after fleeing the right bank of the Dnieper in November 2022, has yet to conduct a single successful counteroffensive operation and is incapable of mass river crossings? And this, despite the fact that even if one imagines a successful amphibious operation, the ongoing battles in the right-bank Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, with distances of up to 180 kilometers to Odessa, and the formation of flanks, still remain unresolved.
In Donetsk region, three groups of forces have only advanced 35 kilometers over the course of a year and a half along the most active strike direction, while here we are talking about a single group of forces, whose path is not only blocked by complex terrain and cities and villages, but also by the defense lines of Ukrainian forces. What Odessa? A land operation aimed at reaching Odessa is simply unrealistic and unachievable for Russian forces.
On the other hand, why should one dismiss the possibility of an amphibious assault on the Odessa region’s coastline?
Firstly, during the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian forces did plan to capture Odessa in this manner, but the Neptune anti-ship missile system hindered these plans. The fear that landing ships with thousands of marines on board could be sent to the bottom of the Black Sea prevented Russia from realizing this idea. They failed then, and they certainly won't succeed now, considering that the Neptune system is no longer the sole deterrent it was three years ago.
Secondly, throughout the full-scale war, the Black Sea Fleet not only lost its air defense cover in the form of the missile cruiser Moskva, but also several landing ships, significantly reducing the effectiveness of any amphibious operation, which would end in inevitable destruction for those involved in the depths of the Black Sea.
The main threat to Odessa has been, and will remain, terror from Russia. Missile and drone strikes, but specifically terror for the sake of terror. Through terror, as well as the media, which can be used to disseminate narrative propaganda, Russia is trying to intimidate the people of Odessa and even the negotiation team, raising the stakes with the phantom threat of capturing Odessa. Bluffing during an extremely unsuccessful game.
Let’s maintain critical thinking and not fall for manipulations.
