The market plummeted by 13%, with the rate of decline comparable to the summer-autumn of 2022 (when, by the way, mobilization was taking place in Russia).
For example, Rosneft fell by 10%.
However, the Russian market is not just declining—it is experiencing high liquidity.
A drop amid record trading volumes almost always signals a mass investor exit.
The record trading volume has reached 4 trillion rubles per month (approximately $40 billion), whereas the usual range is 2.5–3 trillion rubles.
February saw record highs (growth), while March set records for decline.
And the reason behind these two market phases? Trump. Or more precisely, the dynamics of negotiations on a peace settlement.
First, optimism—then pessimism.
Similar record trading volumes were observed in January 2022.
Now, the market is reacting to Trump's threats to impose secondary sanctions on Russia.
What does this mean?
A test case was conducted in Venezuela: a 25% tariff on goods from countries purchasing Venezuelan oil.
The tariff is applied when those goods are exported to the U.S.
The test showed that Chinese tankers en route to Venezuela for loading turned around and went back.
How effective would this model be against Russia?
Partially effective—but not entirely.
For instance, India and Turkey, which purchase Russian oil, are not major exporters of goods to the U.S.
Meanwhile, tariffs on Chinese goods will be introduced regardless of whether China stops buying Russian oil.
Still, the impact will be felt.
In the worst-case scenario, Russia could face the "Iranian model"—selling limited volumes of oil through gray-market schemes.
As I’ve written before: in any uncertain situation, look at stock market quotes.
Judging by them, investors are expecting geopolitical escalation.
The initial geopolitical premium in the Russian stock market, tied to negotiations and expectations of partial sanctions relief, has been fully "cashed out."
Meanwhile, a harsh redistribution of assets—driven by crackdowns from security forces—is currently unfolding in the Russian agricultural sector. This is because there are expectations in Russia that sanctions in this area may soon be eased, opening a "window" for foreign economic activity in dollars.
But overall, the market anticipates geopolitical escalation.
And there is suspicion that it won’t be along the Russia-U.S. axis—but rather Russia vs. the EU and Britain.
