Investment company Dragon Capital (Kyiv), which invested around $700 million in Ukraine between 2015 and 2021, excluding reinvestments of several hundred million more, plans to invest $100 million in 2025 due to improved macroeconomic predictability and economic growth.
"In mid-2023, we began considering new investments. This year, we plan to make around $100 million in new investments," said owner and CEO Tomas Fiala at the "Logistics as a Driver of Economic Growth" conference in Kyiv, organized by the We Build Ukraine analytical center.
The businessman added that most of the funding will come from the company's own funds and shareholder capital from co-investors, while a smaller portion, "perhaps up to a quarter," will be borrowed.
He clarified that out of the $700 million invested from 2015 to 2021, about a third—up to $250 million—was debt-financed, of which 80% has already been repaid. There was also a significant portion of private Western investors—European or American.
"We truly believe that 2025 will be the first year during the war when we have much better macroeconomic predictability. We (Ukraine – IF-U) have fully secured commitments for financing our budget deficit for all of 2025 and almost all of 2026," Fiala explained, justifying the decision to resume investments.
He recalled that, including the $50 billion Ukraine is set to receive through the ERA instrument using frozen Russian assets, the country's total confirmed financing stands at $56 billion, compared to the $40 billion needed to cover the 2025 budget deficit.
"That is if there is no ceasefire, but if it happens, about $10 billion less will be needed," said the owner of Dragon Capital.
He added that given this situation, a relatively stable exchange rate and economic growth can be forecasted for 2025: if the war continues—3%, and if it ends—5-7%.
"We are not the only ones paying attention to ceasefire negotiations. You can look at this 'barometer'—the prices of Ukrainian Eurobonds traded in London. These represent assessments by dozens of foreign investors regarding Ukraine's risks. Eurobond prices have been rising for the past two years, but this growth has accelerated since about October last year," Fiala pointed out.
According to him, new investors assess Ukrainian risk through sovereign Eurobonds, targeting yields of 13-14% per year—this is the rate at which they are willing to buy Ukraine's government debt.
Fiala added that reliable Ukrainian corporate bonds, such as those of MHP and Kernel, are being purchased by investors at yields of around 10%, and sometimes even 9%.
Dragon Capital is one of the largest investment groups in Ukraine in the field of investment and financial services, providing a full range of investment banking and brokerage services, direct investments, and asset management for institutional, corporate, and private clients. The company was founded in Kyiv in 2000.
