Unlike the official Kremlin stance, Russian expert circles do not consider the scenario of either Russia's victory or Ukraine's military defeat in 2025 as the baseline. This forecast was made by the Russian Academy of Sciences in its annual report "Russia and the World: 2025", reports the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service.
To implement the "victorious" scenario this year, Moscow would require significant additional resources, considerable organizational efforts, and favorable external conditions.
Russian analysts consider two likely scenarios for the development of events this year.
The first – in the second half of 2025, the administration of President Donald Trump will organize a negotiation track "from a position of strength." U.S. pressure on Russia is expected to involve enhanced sanctions and increased arms supplies to Ukraine.
The second scenario – the continuation of hostilities with a gradual intensification of strikes deep into Russian territory, as Western countries are unwilling to accept Ukraine's defeat, given their investments in supporting it.
In general, such discrepancies between the official Kremlin position and the "scientific" circles do not affect the country's goal – the destruction of Ukraine as a state.
