Retail gasoline prices in Russia have increased by 18% year-on-year, with an additional 8% hike expected by the end of the year, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
This surge is likely to become a new catalyst for overall consumer price growth.
Key contributing factors include a delayed inflationary effect (9.5% for 2024 and 10.2% for January–April), higher excise taxes (+4%), reduced state subsidies for oil producers, and rising Transneft transportation tariffs (up to +10%).
Amid this backdrop, Russia has nearly halved its seaborne gasoline exports: in May, exports dropped to 130,000 tonnes — 47% less than a year ago.
“The rising cost of fuel will inevitably impact prices in logistics, manufacturing, and retail — putting even greater inflationary pressure on the Russian economy in 2025,” the intelligence service forecasts.
