The Belarusian opposition has issued an official warning that self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko is deliberately and systematically preparing Belarus for direct participation in Russia’s war against Ukraine. A detailed report describing the scale of the regime’s military preparations was prepared by the main executive body of the opposition, the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. This was reported by the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus.
Opposition representatives identify eight key and undeniable indicators showing the rapid militarization of the country and its preparation for a transition to full-scale armed conflict on the side of the Russian Federation.
As the first major sign of readiness for combat, the opposition points to radical legal changes that effectively legalize preemptive strikes. The report states that recent constitutional and military-legal reforms have completely removed Belarus’s previous neutral and non-nuclear status. The new military doctrine allows the leadership to carry out preemptive strikes if Minsk deems there to be an imminent threat, and also opens the legal possibility of deploying Belarusian troops abroad.
Against this background, the size of the armed forces is being expanded at an unprecedented pace. According to opposition analysts, since 2022 the number of contract soldiers has increased by 1.5 times, and the overall mobilization reserve is now estimated at 289,000 people. At the same time, a new Southern Operational Command is being formed for the Ukrainian direction, with a potential troop strength exceeding 80,000. A territorial “people’s militia” system is also being created, potentially covering up to 150,000 people. Draft notices are being sent via SMS, and recruitment methods now include prisoners in correctional facilities.
In parallel, Alexander Lukashenko is placing the entire Belarusian economy on a wartime footing. Over the past four years, defense spending has increased fivefold, and the Belarusian defense industry has been fully integrated with Russia’s military-industrial complex, operating under strict secrecy. In 2024 alone, more than 4,000 units of military equipment were reportedly adopted into service.
This process is accompanied by deepening military integration with Moscow. Russian military contingents remain permanently stationed in Belarus, Russian tactical nuclear weapons and advanced S-400 “Oreshnik” missile systems have been deployed, and training of Belarusian personnel is continuously conducted by instructors from the Wagner private military company.
The opposition also reports extensive militarization of border regions along Belarus’s frontiers with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania, where defensive fortifications are being rapidly built and transport infrastructure is being adapted for potential Russian logistics needs. Militarization has also reached civilian life: compulsory basic military training has been introduced in schools, and military-patriotic programs for younger children are expanding.
The Lukashenko regime is also strengthening civil defense measures. New medical triage protocols for wartime conditions have been adopted, thousands of bomb shelters in Minsk have been inspected, civil warning systems are being regularly tested, and local militia units are being equipped with personal protective equipment.
The opposition expresses particular concern over the accelerated accumulation of strategic reserves. State fuel reserves have reportedly doubled, and lists of civilian vehicles subject to immediate mobilization have been expanded. Under a government decree dated May 15, 2026, privately owned enterprise transport can be requisitioned by the military at any time for the formation of army convoys.
The final indicator cited by opposition figures is the ongoing large-scale military exercises in 2026, which they argue are primarily intended to continuously test mobilization systems and maintain Belarusian society in a state of psychological tension.
