This version might be supported by the fact that the Russians are already conducting reconnaissance on our energy facilities, said the representative of the Military Intelligence Directorate, Vadym Skibitsky to RBC-Ukraine. According to Skibitsky, the enemy is currently identifying their vulnerable points and the locations of air defense systems to determine optimal launch routes.
Something similar was observed during the attack from Saturday to Sunday, August 27: the launch of multiple rockets that covered nearly the entire country was most likely intended to study potential future routes.
The Military Intelligence Directorate considers that the enemy's tactics and approach in targeting energy infrastructure will depend on how accurately they identify critical targets for us. This could involve 1-3 strikes focused on a single target to fully destroy it, or a concentrated attack using various types of weaponry including drones and missiles.
However, such massive bombardments as those that occurred last October, November, and December, where they launched 70-100 rockets simultaneously, are unlikely to happen again.
"The Russians realize that they might not achieve their goal and instead deplete their resources, as was the case last year," added Skibitsky.
Another possible firing scheme could involve a combined salvo – launching 10-30 different rockets along with a significantly larger number of "shaheeds." One of the attacks organized by the enemy in August shows that unfortunately, this tactic allows certain hostile objects to bypass our air defense. Last season, substations – critical elements of the energy system – suffered the most damage from drones. Yuriy Ignat, the spokesperson for the Air Force Command, also believes that in the event of energy infrastructure attacks, the emphasis will be on Shaheeds.
"We are aware that the Russians are increasing their missile production. However, this is still insufficient to sustain the same intensity of strikes as seen last fall and winter – 70-100 rockets every week or every 10-14 days for five months. Therefore, in my opinion, if there are new attacks on energy infrastructure, the enemy will rely more on strike drones," Ignat said.
The aggressor has already started working on establishing significant drone production. In June, the White House reported that with Iran's assistance, Russia aims to build a factory in Tatarstan for producing "shaheeds," which is expected to start operating early next year. However, according to our military intelligence, Moscow is already deploying suicide drones against Ukraine, assembled in Russia.
"After recent 'shaheed' attacks, we discovered elements indicating that the final assembly of these UAVs takes place on Russian territory. This is evident from the increased number of Russian components in the drones. Furthermore, we have information about the aggressor's plans, which include expanding the production of 'shaheeds' within Russian territory. Additionally, during one of the Russian defense industry exhibitions, it was announced that Moscow intends to produce around 60 UAVs of various modifications by 2030," Skibitsky explained
