By Iliya Kusa
"Everything happened as expected and without any surprises. Of all the scenarios I mentioned, a direct strike was chosen. They launched everything that could reach Israel, meaning drones and missiles.
Israel shot down almost everything, which was also expected. First, they had to anticipate such retaliation from Iran when they targeted their consulate in Damascus. Secondly, for a whole week, anyone who cared could have written about the inevitable Iranian attack and prepared for it. Thirdly, a few hours before the attack, the Iranians even announced it, and then declared (!) the launch of drones towards Israel, which took several hours to get there, and towards the end of their long journey, Iran launched ballistic missiles. Israel and its allies were prepared.
Naturally, the Iranians decided to stay within the framework of reciprocal escalation and announced the end of their "retaliation" for the consulate strike, handing the ball to Israel, knowing that Israel would want to respond, but the US and its allies would oppose further escalation and prefer to keep the conflict manageable without further escalation.
Now much will depend on Israel's response, which has already been announced in Tel Aviv.
Naturally, the US and Europe (as well as regional countries) will oppose further exchanges of strikes. They won't solve anything, but they might accidentally destabilize the region, which goes against the interests of the West, which seeks to prevent wars on multiple fronts with unpredictable consequences for everyone and the global economy.
The struggle between Israel and Iran for the format of their confrontation will continue. Israel struck the consulate, hoping to provoke Iran into direct confrontation, which, according to Israeli leaders, would make it easier to involve allies and lift taboos on direct strikes against Iran's military and nuclear facilities. In Tehran, they want to maintain the format of an indirect proxy war with Israel because it's cheaper, easier, and uncomfortable for Israel, and as the situation in Gaza showed, they are losing in terms of information."
